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Exclusive: The Inside Story Of How Deutsche Bank "Deals With" Whistleblowers

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Back in May we brought you "The Real Story Behind Deutsche Bank's Latest Book Cooking Settlement," in which we detailed the circumstances that led the bank to settle claims it mismarked its crisis-era derivatives book to the tune of at least $5 billion. 

Deutsche Bank settled the issue with the SEC for the laughable sum of $55 million a few months back.

The SEC inquiry was prompted, in part, by Dr. Eric Ben-Artzi who was fired from Deutsche Bank in 2011 after expressing his concerns about the bank's valuation methodology. 

What follows is the real, play-by-play account of Ben-Artzi's dismissal from Deutsche Bank, told in its entirety for the first time. 

*  *  *

Your Services Are No Longer Needed

On November 7, 2011 Dr. Eric Ben-Artzi walked into a conference room at Deutsche Bank’s U.S. headquarters in lower Manhattan. Seated at a conference table was Sharon Wilson from the Human Resources department. Lars Popken, DB’s head of market risk methodology and Ben-Artzi’s manager, was videoconferenced in.

Ben-Artzi had just returned from FMLA paternity leave and although things had gotten tense just prior to his time off, he certainly didn’t expect what came next. Ben-Artzi’s job, Popken said, was being moved to Germany.

Ben-Artzi thought back to the summer when, in response to rumors that some U.S. positions were likely to be moved overseas, he had mentioned he’d be happy to relocate to Berlin. No such luck. Minutes later, he was terminated and Wilson hurriedly ushered him out of the building. Ben-Artzi wasn’t even allowed to collect his personal belongings. 


The (Brief) Backstory

The events that ultimately led Deutsche Bank to boot Ben-Artzi from 60 Wall without so much as a cardboard box for his pictures, pens, and legal pads date back to 1998 and for the sake of brevity, we won't recount the whole story but encourage anyone interested in the entire narrative to review it here. 

In short, Deutsche Bank was heavily involved in every single aspect of the market for third-party asset backed commercial paper in Canada prior to the financial crisis. They had an equity stake in the parent of at least two issuers, they served as a liquidity provider on over half of all Series A commercial paper issued by Canadian conduits, they sold the paper through their securities division, and perhaps most importantly, they structured the programs (e.g. LSS deals) that backed the paper. But in the simplest possible terms: Detusche Bank was deeply embedded in a market that collapsed in August of 2007.

As mentioned above, the events that unfolded between June and October of that year are a story in and of themselves, but suffice to say that the market for commercial paper issued by the Canadian conduits imploded on August 13, 2007 (BNP’s move to freeze three ABS funds four days earlier sparked a panic) imperiling retail investors, small- to mid-size corporations, and pension funds and triggering a massive (and incredibly messy) restructuring effort.

Most of this drama had ended by the time Eric Ben-Artzi arrived at Deutsche Bank in June of 2010 and the former Goldmanite likely had no idea what he was about to uncover when he began to look at how Deutsche went about accounting for their exposure to the Canadian conduits during the crisis. 

Deutsche Bank played an outsized role in the market for LSS deals in the years leading up to the crisis. In fact, Deutsche Bank accounted for between $120 and $130 billion of the $200 billion (notional) in total LSS deals between 2005 and 2007.

When Ben-Artzi, who has a PhD in applied mathematics from NYU Courant, began to look at how the bank was valuing the gap option on the LSS trades, he made a rather disconcerting discovery. 

As a refresher, here’s a simple explanation of the gap option problem with LSS deals: 

The laughable thing about LSS deals was that they were effectively non-recourse, meaning that the protection seller was allowed to sell protection on a notional amount that was multiples of the collateral posted, but in the event the market moved against the seller enough to chew through that collateral and a margin call was made, that seller could just say “to hell with it” and walk away from the deal. More simply, I, the seller, insure $100 million in debt, but only post $10 million up front. If there’s a credit market meltdown and my $10 million is no longer sufficient and you, the protection (insurance) buyer, call me looking for more money to compensate you for the elevated risk, I can politely tell you to piss off. The risk that I tell you to piss off is called “gap risk.”

To be a bit more specific, the seller of protection (in this case the Canadian conduits) had the option to walk away from the deal without posting additional collateral (this is the “gap option”), and the value of that option changed depending on a number of factors including credit spreads and correlation. 

As it turns out, Deutsche Bank began making these trades without even having a model to value the gap option -- standard models (e.g. a copula model) cannot be used for LSS trades. Not only that, the bank’s credit correlation desk didn’t even bother to consult the market risk methodology department (where Ben-Artzi worked and which was responsible for verifying the appropriateness of valuation models) and instead decided to simply discount the value of the trades by 15%. Sensing that this was likely inadequate, Deutsche briefly attempted to determine the actual value of the gap option on the trades, but when the numbers came back looking rather nasty, the bank did what any pre-crisis sell side firm worth its salt would do: they scrapped that model and went with something that made the results look more favorable. In this case, Deutsche simply set up the equivalent of a loan loss reserve for the entire book and called it a day. At the time (i.e. between 2007 and 2009), other players in the industry valued the gap option at between 2% and 8% of notional. Taking the midpoint there, and taking the midpoint between Deutsche’s estimated $110 and $120 billion in notional exposure, the value of the gap option for the bank would have been nearly $6 billion.

How Deutsche Bank Deals With 'Problem' Employees

Sometime around October of 2010, Ben-Artzi began to ask questions, starting with the Director and Head of Risk Research and Development. Discussions with management continued into the new year until finally, fed up with what he perceived to be an attempt to sweep the issue under the rug, Ben-Artzi contacted the SEC on March 7, 2011 and called Deutsche Bank’s employee hotline four days later. 

On March 17, Ben-Artzi met with Robert Rice, then Deutsche’s Head of Governance, Litigation & Regulation for the Americas who said there was an ongoing investigation into some of the issues Ben-Artzi had raised. Later that month, Ben-Artzi suffered through a lengthy meeting with Rice and William Johnson, Deutsche’s outside counsel. 

What’s important to note here is that Bob and Bill (as Rice and Johnson are known to their friends) weren’t exactly strangers. As it turns out, they both worked in the  U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York with Mary Jo White and Robert Khuzami.

After his first stint in public service, Khuzami went on to become General Counsel to  the Americas at Deutsche and by the time Ben-Artzi reported his concerns to the government in 2011, Khuzami had moved on to become Director of Enforcement for the SEC. Mary Jo White would of course become SEC Chair in 2013, and almost two years to the day after Ben-Artzi first met with Rice, Bob would be named Chief Counsel to White.

As such, Ben-Artzi was (and still is) essentially squaring off against a tight-knit faction of former attorneys for the Southern District of New York who have managed to turn the SEC into an extension of Deutsche Bank, much as Goldman has turned the Fed into an extension of the Vampire Squid. As an aside, Deutsche’s General Counsel Richard Walker worked at the SEC for a decade and served as Director Of Enforcement from 1998 until his move to join the bank in 2001. 

On May 12, 2011, Ben-Artzi sat down to discuss the issue further with Rice and Matt Spaulding (then global head of finance for Deutsche). Also in attendance were two employees from the corporate and investment bank, Stefan Schafer and Andreas Kodell, both of whom had come over from London.

Maybe it was the jet lag, or maybe it was the fact that Ben-Artzi was essentially threatening to expose a multi-billion dollar "error" in the way the bank was valuing its LSS book, but whatever the case, Schafer and Kodell weren’t happy. The two proceeded to give Ben-Artzi a rather sharp tongue-lashing for questioning the bank’s valuation of the trades.

In the process, Schafer and Kodell did shed some light on Deutsche’s previous attempts to evaluate their exposure to the gap option. Unfortunately, they were unable to explain why Ben-Artzi’s calculations were incorrect and Spaulding was similarly unable to justify the bank’s initial use of a 15% haircut or explain how the subsequent decision to adopt a reserve against the trades was in any way sufficient. Lars Popken, who was also in attendance, remained surprisingly quiet.

On May 23, in a meeting that included Sharon Wilson from HR, Rice said Deutsche Bank would be providing no further information into how it valued the trades and suggested Ben-Artzi contact an SEC attorney.

At the end of that month, Popken assured Ben-Artzi that despite the controversy, no retaliatory action would be taken by the bank.

Ben-Artzi began his leave of absence on June 30 and returned to work on October 19.

Less than three weeks later, he was fired. 

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Epilogue

If ever there was a story that exemplified virtually everything that is wrong on Wall Street surely this is it. Here we had one of the largest banks in the world by assets agreeing to facilitate leveraged bets in synthetic credit by Canadian special purpose entities which had virtually no equity whatsoever on their books. Deutsche knew the collateral for these bets came from the sale of commercial paper to clueless retail investors and pension funds, and not only did the bank not care, Deutsche actually encouraged the conduits to pile leverage on top of the posted collateral, creating an enormous amount of risk not only for the holders of the commercial paper, but for the bank itself. Deutsche then proceeded to guarantee the commercial paper in the event the market ceased to function only to refuse payment to noteholders when the market finally did collapse in August of 2007, leaving retail investors and pension funds out in the cold.

Meanwhile, the bank intentionally underreported its exposure by systematically refusing to model the gap option built into the trades and when someone honest finally came along and called them on their obfuscation, they summarily dismissed him. 

Of course the punchline here is that convincing the SEC to acknowledge the sheer absurdity of the entire ordeal has been, and will continue to be well nigh impossible for the following reasons: 1) Robert Khuzami, the agency’s head of enforcement when Ben-Artzi’s complaint was filed, was Deutsche’s General Counsel to the Americas the entire time the bank was mismarking its LSS book, 2) Bob Rice, the SEC’s current Chief Counsel, was Deutsche’s Head of Governance, Litigation & Regulation during Ben-Artzi’s tenure at the bank, 3) the current SEC Chair, Mary Jo White, goes way back with both Rice and Khuzami as well as with Bill Johnson, Deutsche’s outside counsel at time of Ben-Artzi’s complaint, and 4) Deutsche’s current General Counsel worked at the SEC for 10 years, including a stint as chief enforcement officer. 

In the end, all the boxes are checked. This story truly has it all: risky derivatives, leverage, the destruction of retail investors’ savings, hidden risk, the termination of honest employees, and the revolving door between Wall Street and the U.S. government. 


Frontrunning: July 16

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  • Greece licks wounds after bailout vote, ECB move expected (Reuters)
  • Lose-Lose: Pushing Greece Out of Euro Is Costlier Than Write-Off (BBG)
  • EMU brutality in Greece has destroyed the trust of Europe's Left (Telegraph)
  • Schaeuble Shrugs Off Greek Vote Saying Euro Exit Is Best (BBG)
  • Merkel’s tough tactics prompt criticism in Germany and abroad (FT)
  • Investors Get Caught in Oil’s Slippery Wake (WSJ)
  • Obama Girds for Battle With Congress on Iran Deal (WSJ)
  • Icahn Flips Script on BlackRock’s Fink, a Longtime Critic (WSJ)
  • Rice - Iran cannot avoid inspections of suspicious sites (Reuters)
  • Drought Is the Mother of Invention on the Farm (WSJ)
  • Puerto Rico Says It Failed to Send Money for Bond Payments (BBG)
  • Congress to probe Planned Parenthood use of aborted fetus tissue (Reuters)
  • EU Launches Antitrust Investigations Into Qualcomm (WSJ)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* Greece's Parliament passed austerity measures needed to secure a fresh bailout, but a rebellion within the ruling Syriza party is testing whether Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras can hold his government together as he seeks to complete the deal. (http://on.wsj.com/1LkBWzT)

* Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said the central bank was on a path to raise rates this year as the economy improves, in semiannual testimony to Congress that got off to a fiery start Wednesday. (http://on.wsj.com/1TCm7HL)

* The cost of resolving police-misconduct cases has surged for big U.S. cities, with the 10 cities with the largest departments paying out $248.7 million last year. (http://on.wsj.com/1fKNz7J)

* U.S. President Barack Obama delivered a forceful defense of the Iran nuclear deal the day after it was reached, girding for a complicated political struggle with Congress. (http://on.wsj.com/1Mvpyvz)

* A U.S. hedge fund's challenge to a once-in-a-generation succession at Samsung is forcing South Korea's most powerful family to rethink its relationship with shareholders. (http://on.wsj.com/1gCzFol)

* In resisting a takeover bid from rival Monsanto, Syngenta has argued that a merger would run afoul of antitrust regulators, but Monsanto disputes that. (http://on.wsj.com/1DicjsY)

 

FT

Deutsche Bank AG is now being investigated by the UK regulator the Financial Conduct Authority to see whether the bank breached any anti-money laundering laws for its Moscow clients. Earlier this week, New York's banking regulator asked the bank to provide details about a suspected bribe to a Moscow bank employee as part of its investigation.

British payments processing firm Worldpay (IPO-WORLD.L) took a step nearer a potential stock market listing by appointing Barclays' deputy chairman Michael Rake as its new chairman on Wednesday.

Santander Consumer Holdings USA has named former JPMorgan Chase & Co executive Blythe Masters as its non-executive chairman.

Belgian Privacy Commission defended its decision to take Facebook to court by calling it "politically motivated". The data protection agency took the company to court alleging that the company tracks people over the web even if they do not use the service.

 

NYT

* More than 15 months after a law firm hired by Qatar, the site of the 2022 World Cup, issued a report urging reforms in the treatment of migrant construction workers, critics say many of the major recommendations remain unaddressed, and thousands of foreign laborers continue to work under conditions akin to indentured servitude.(http://nyti.ms/1CFdgRf)

* Under threat from the nation's creditors to move quickly or lose any chance of obtaining a desperately needed new bailout package, Greece's Parliament approved painful new austerity measures early Thursday, virtually guaranteeing that life would get harder for millions of Greeks. (http://nyti.ms/1CFdlV3)

* Dispensaries for expensive drugs that treat complex or rare diseases are surging, but their customer service and business practices are under scrutiny.(http://nyti.ms/1CFdDLS)

* Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, told lawmakers on Wednesday that proposals to increase congressional oversight of the central bank could cause collateral damage to the broader economy. (http://nyti.ms/1CFdNTi)

* Nearly 80 years after kicking out foreign oil companies, Mexico reversed course on Wednesday, auctioning 14 exploration blocks in an effort to attract international energy giants and increase the country's slumping production. But the results were a disappointment. (http://nyti.ms/1CFdRCw)

* Public Finance Corporation, a financing unit of the Puerto Rican government failed to make a $93.7 million debt-service payment on Wednesday, underscoring recent warnings by Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla that the commonwealth, which is seeking a "negotiated moratorium" on its $72 billion of debt, is fast running out of cash. (http://nyti.ms/1CFdTuc)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** The Bank of Canada lowered its trend-setting overnight rate a quarter percentage point Wednesday to 0.50 percent - the second rate cut in six months. (http://bit.ly/1fLnzJn)

** Shaw Communications Inc said Thursday it will open a 40,000-square-foot data center in Calgary and launch a number of cloud computing and data management services aimed at enterprise customers. (http://bit.ly/1fLnEgl)

** Premium apparel producer and retailer Tilley Endurables Inc, known for its hard-wearing sun hats, has been sold to a private equity firm, with the goal of reversing its slide in sales amid tougher competition. Re:Capital, the Canadian arm of British firm Hilco Capital, has acquired Tilley, the company said on Wednesday. (http://bit.ly/1I58GOo)

NATIONAL POST

** Waste disposal company Stericycle Inc said it would buy privately held Shred-it International Inc, a secure information destruction services provider, for $2.3 billion in cash. (http://bit.ly/1fLojy9)

** Cogeco Inc's profit and revenue jumped in the third quarter, mainly on the back of growth in its U.S. cable services as well as favorable exchange rates. Revenue for the Montreal-based company increased by 4.1 percent to $557.8 million. (http://bit.ly/1fLoXMi)

** The Canadian government is actively consulting on a move to increase the minimum down payment required to buy a house. Sources say that Ottawa has been studying proposals to increase the minimum down payment from five percent and said the government is particularly keen on adding restrictions for high-priced housing. (http://bit.ly/1fLp5eH)

 

Hong Kong

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

-- The high court has appointed two provisional liquidators for the cash-strapped company behind Sing Pao Daily News, raising fresh doubts over the future of the city's oldest Chinese-language newspaper. Another Chinese daily, the Hong Kong Daily News, went out of business on Sunday after 56 years, succumbing to years of financial losses. (bit.ly/1M6JSFJ)

-- The ICAC has been drawn into a global hacking controversy after leaked emails showed graft-busters sought the services of an Italian online surveillance company notorious for helping governments. The revelations surfaced after Milan-based cybersecurity firm Hacking Team became the victim of a cyberattack where hackers hijacked its Twitter account and published the information. (bit.ly/1e1sEvf)

THE STANDARD

-- Ten public housing estates with 24,000 households will be tested for lead contamination as the Hong Kong government tries to staunch worries over hazardous heavy metal in drinking water. The water scare was prompted by a Democratic Party investigation that found excessive lead levels in water samples at Kai Ching Estate. (bit.ly/1So4yZw)

-- Hong Kong's big-ticket home deals hit an all-time high last month but are expected to ease amid stock market jitters. The Land Registry logged 163 registrations in June of used homes valued above HK$20 million ($2.58 million), or 3.7 percent of the 4,443 homes registered in the secondary market last month. That marked the highest share since records began in 1996. (bit.ly/1Gn2uKi)

HONG KONG ECONOMIC JOURNAL

-- China home grown sports brand 361 Degrees International Ltd, which recorded a 7.2 percent growth in same store sales in the quarter ended June, said it did not expect the number of stores in its network to increase or decrease significantly in the upcoming quarters.

HONG KONG ECONOMIC TIMES

-- China Overseas Land and Investment Ltd said its contracted sales totalled HK$85.45 billion ($11.02 billion) for the first half of 2015, up 17 percent from a year ago. It met 50.9 percent of its annual sales target of HK$168 billion.

 

Britain

The Times

GROVELLING TSIPRAS FIGHTS FOR THE REFORMS HE LOATHES

Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, last night was fighting for survival as he struggled to push through reforms, including spending cuts and tax rises, in a series of crucial parliamentary votes. (http://thetim.es/1I3xZAy)

JOBLESS RATE RISES TO WORST IN TWO YEARS

George Osborne has suffered a setback only a week after his budget with the worst set of official jobs figures in two years. Taking markets and forecasters by surprise, unemployment rose to 5.6 percent in the three months to May and employment fell by 67,000. (http://thetim.es/1MuQSdh)

The Guardian

MICHAEL RAKE LEAVES BARCLAYS DAYS AFTER OUSTING CHIEF EXECUTIVE ANTONY JENKINS

Barclays Plc faces further boardroom upheaval after it emerged the deputy chairman, Michael Rake, who played a key role in ousting Chief Executive Antony Jenkins last week is also to leave the bank. (http://bit.ly/1MuQUC8)

BRITISH GAS TO CUT GAS PRICES BY 5 PERCENT

British Gas has announced it will cut gas prices by 5 percent from the end of August. Britain's biggest energy provider said that the price cut, which will take effect from Aug. 27, would reduce annual energy bills on average by 35 stg and benefit 6.9 million of its customers on Standard and Fix & Fall tariffs. (http://bit.ly/1K8c0Wz)

The Telegraph

BRITISH TAXPAYERS 'PROTECTED' AS OSBORNE STRIKES DEAL ON GREEK LOANS

British taxpayers will not be left exposed for another Greek bailout, Chancellor George Osborne hopes, under a compromise struck with Jean-Claude Juncker. (http://bit.ly/1I41OPr)

SINGAPOREAN INVESTOR TO BUY 20 PCT STAKE IN LONDON HOUSE BUILDER GALLIARD GROUP

Singapore's Oxley Holdings Ltd is to buy a 20 percent stake in house builder Galliard in a deal that highlights continued Asian interest in London's booming property market. (http://bit.ly/1O7iupj)

Sky News

GROCERS FACE CMA ACTION AFTER SUPER-COMPLAINT

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) will on Thursday unveil a series of recommendations aimed at improving the transparency of supermarkets' pricing activities. (http://bit.ly/1I3rOuf)

OFCOM TO REVIVE PROSPECT OF BT GROUP BREAK-UP

Ofcom is set to seek views about the impact of BT Group Plc hiving off Openreach, the unit which manages access to the national telecoms network. (http://bit.ly/1Hvugs7)

The Independent

GOVERNMENT FACES MULTI-BILLION POUND BLACK HOLE IN BUDGET TO PAY FOR CLEAN ENERGY SUPPLIES - WHICH COULD MEAN YOUR ELECTRICITY BILL RISES

The government is facing a multi-billion pound black hole in its budget to pay for new clean energy supplies, which could result in rising household electricity bills unless there is a dramatic decline in investment in renewable technologies. Department of Energy and Climate Change has already overspent its budget by 1.5 billion stg to support renewable energy projects over the next five years. (http://ind.pn/1e1mhrZ)


ECB Preview: Draghi To Address Greece, China, Reiterate QE Commitment in "Holding Pattern" Presser

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By all accounts, Mario Draghi should remain "largely on message" in Thursday's ECB presser, with the deal struck in Brussels last weekend having spared him the inconvenience of convening a tense discussion about imminent Grexit. 

Draghi (who may or may not have personally helped orchestrate the currency swaps with Goldman in 2001 that are largely responsible for Greece's current predicament) should reiterate the central bank's commitment to implement PSPP in full and the market will no doubt be looking for any color the ECB cares to add about the event risks surrounding the implementation of a third Greek program and the recent turmoil in Chinese equity markets. 

Wildcards for today's press conference include: completely unexpected, market destabilizing commentary about persistent volatility and of course, glitter.

More from the sellside below.

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Deutsche Bank:

Thursday should be a holding-pattern press conference with Mario Draghi largely repeating the policy message from the last meeting, that is, that the ECB is fully committed to its QE programme through to September 2016 and the risks are tilted to more QE, not less. 

There is some potential for a mildly more dovish message on inflation given the decline in oil prices over the last couple of months, but this should not affect the medium-term view. We would be a little less surprised by this than a more positive message on the recovery. 

The first message we would expect is a repeat of the Council's "prudent optimism" on the economic recovery and the chances of inflation returning sustainably to target in the medium-term. Once again, this guarded optimism will be predicated on full implementation of the QE plan through to September 2016. The improvement in the pace of GDP growth and the return to positive inflation this year does not question the need for QE in the mind of the Council. Rather, it justifies the decision to implement QE. 

The second message we expect to hear in the press conference is caution. The ECB is at pains to remind the markets that there are still downside risks to growth, in particular because of the debt overhang, the uneven and slow pace of structural reforms and risks of disappointing external demand. China might be mentioned as a risk, indirectly via external demand and geopolitical risks. Likewise, on inflation the ECB acknowledges the role played by external factors including the weaker currency in pushing inflation forecasts and inflation expectations higher. This leave questions about the extent of domestic inflationary pressures. The ECB wants to "monitor closely" domestic inflation, e.g. wages. The ECB claims that core inflation has largely moved sideways at around 1.25% since 2010. Non-core, and hence erratic, items have dominated the movements in inflation. The renewed declining in oil prices falls highlights a concern, but this should not affect the medium-term view. Expect Draghi to repeat the message that it is too early to declare success in beating the downside inflation risks. 

The third message we expect to hear is that despite the recent increase in sovereign yields, monetary conditions remain accommodative. The surprise for markets last month was Draghi's message that they should get used to higher volatility. The ECB considers an increase in fixed income volatility to be normal following the introduction of a QE programme. What the ECB needs to do is separate what is a warranted tightening of financial conditions from an unwarranted tightening. This is no easy task, but both Mario Draghi and Peter Praet have since last month's Council meeting talked about the decline in bank borrowing rates. This decline continues despite the market selloff. Since the ECB is dealing with a mainly bank-based rather than a market-based financial system, falling bank borrowing rates are critically important to the ECB conclusion that monetary conditions remain accommodative. The last ECB minutes make a point about “pipeline effects”, meaning the slow benefits accruing to the real economy from the rolling over of debts at increasingly lower interest rates. The ECB is using this "longer perspective" to keep policy calm through market volatility. 

BofAML:

Waiting for September The ECB faces a complicated challenge. We have argued the tightening in monetary conditions (clearly unwanted) and the Greek saga leave the ECB with its finger on the trigger. Risks surrounding China certainly add to the dovish bias. But economic data remain strong and inflation data is behaving as the ECB forecast. 

We still think that without a Greek shock, the central bank will want to wait before acting to see if the bond market turmoil affects ‘final’ interest rates, ie, the cost of borrowing for non-financial private agents, and whether technical factors throughout the summer correct some of the recent increase in real interest rates. Still, the ECB needs to sound dovish enough next week to ‘help the market’ get there. If the week delivers a ‘Greek shock’ that calls for immediate action (unlikely at this point), we would expect it to be concentrated in the periphery. 

We remain bullish rates overall, with negative net issuance likely to be supported by Draghi’s dovish tone. The very large cash balances that appear to be building globally may also help the constructive bias, particularly heading into a period of low seasonal Euro govie issuance. In the FX space, we expect limited sustained impact with Monday’s Greek deal placing the emphasis on fundamentals once more.

Barclays:

The ECB will hold its regular monetary policy meeting and press conference today. We do not expect any policy announcement, but the Governing Council is likely to re-iterate its commitment to fully implement its asset purchase programme at least until September 2016, and "until we see a sustained adjustment path of inflation that is consistent with (the) aim of achieving inflation rates below but close to 2% over the medium-term". Moreover, we believe President Draghi is likely to add that the Governing Council stands ready to deploy additional tools and ease policy further if necessary, in particular if the resurgence of the Greek crisis threatens the ongoing economic recovery in the euro area.

The Q&A session is likely to focus on where Greece's banking sector is currently under stress as a result of a dramatic worsening of its liquidity position. The Eurosystem is currently the main source of funding for Greek banks and President Draghi will likely have to answer questions about the ECB’s approach to the continuation of the provision of liquidity through ELA.

Deutsche Bank Stunner: An Inside Look At Former CEO's Role In Liborgate

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Earlier this week in "The Inside Story Of How Deutsche Bank 'Deals With' Whistleblowers," we gave you a play-by-play account of how the bank summarily dismissed Dr. Eric Ben-Artzi after the former Goldmanite raised questions about how Deutsche valued its crisis-era derivatives book.

In short, the story is a reflection of what some say is a hopelessly corrupt corporate culture and indeed, recent events at the bank underscore the extent to which it is reeling from expensive settlements and rampant defections. Here’s a recap of Deutsche Bank’s recent trials and travails: 

In April, Deutsche settled rate rigging charges with the DoJ for $2.5 billion (or about $25,474 per employee). A month later, the bank paid $55 million to the SEC (an agency that’s been run by former Deutsche Bank employees and their close associates for years) in connection with allegations it deliberately mismarked its crisis-era LSS book to the tune of at least $5 billion. On May 8, the bank’s head of structured finance Elad Shraga — who was instrumental in helping Deutsche become "an award-winning arranger of asset- and mortgage-backed debt — left the firm after 15 years. Then on June 5, US Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the Justice Department would pursue new settlements with European banks over crisis-era MBS sales. Four days later, the bank’s headquarters were raided by authorities in connection with possible client tax evasion and on June 15, the firm’s global head of commercial real estate, Jonathan Pollack, defected to Blackstone. 

Oh, and both CEOs resigned on June 7. 

On June 26, FT revealed that BaFin, Germany’s financial "watchdog", had raised serious questions about whether outgoing co-CEO Anshu Jain had misled the Bundesbank about who knew what and when with regard to the bank’s participation in the manipulation of LIBOR among other possible infractions. Summarizing, we said that BaFin apparently thinks Anshu Jain might have known his traders were manipulating LIBOR and also might have taken around a half decade or so to punish a trader who PIMCO apparently caught manipulating IR swaps.

Now, the entire BaFin report (which was sent to Deutsche Bank in May) has leaked. Here’s WSJ

BaFin, the German financial watchdog, sent the report to Deutsche Bank’s management board on May 11, less than a month before the German lender unexpectedly announced that its co-chief executives, Anshu Jain and Jürgen Fitschen, planned to resign. Deutsche Bank officials said in June that the resignations weren’t the result of regulatory pressure.

 

Mr. Jain, whose resignation took effect June 30 and who is still employed by Deutsche Bank as a consultant, is singled out for especially harsh criticism in the letter for allegedly providing inadequate leadership and failing to stop manipulation of the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, and other market benchmarks. 

 


So you're saying Anshu Jain knew about LIBOR manipulation early on. Do you have any proof?

(From the report)

 

Mr. Jain had been informed already in 2008 about the discussions in the market relating to the susceptibility of the LIBOR to manipulation.

 

Mr. Falssola reported to Mr. Jain for the first time, according to the information available to EY about LIBOR submissions which deviated from the market by e-mall dated 21 August 2007.

 

In an e-mail dated 7 March 2008, Mr. Nicholls informed Mr. Jain, Mr. Cloete and Mr. Falssola that the Interbank markets were moving in a divergent direction and that there were banks which were trying to obtain liquidity for up to 50 basis points above the reference interest rate they had determined. The necessary conclusion based on this Information was that banks had reported reference rates which were too low.

Ok, but that could have been hearsay and it's not like anyone was really talking about it, right? 

An article appeared In the Wall Street Journal ("Bankers cast doubt on key rate amid crisis”) on 16 April 2008 In which there was a report about the concerns of market participants with regard to the reliability of the this involved and in one paragraph also the possibility of transmitting false Interest rates in order to profit from derivative transactions as well as the possibility of collusion among banks.

Hmm. Well, maybe Jain didn't read that article. 

This was followed by e-maii communications concerning this WSJ article between Mr. Boaz Weinstein (ZH: A Boaz sighting!) and Mr. Alan Cloete; Mr. Cloete stated that the LIBOR no longer represented a realistic ratio.

 

The discussion about the calculation of the LIBOR that made the rounds in the market following the WSJ article was the subject of two e-mails from Mr. Cloete to Mr. Jain on 20 April 2008 and 15 May 2008: Mr. Cloete referred in his e-malls to the rumors about the LIBOR noise about how libor noise around the LIBOR

 

This shows that Mr. Jain was informed about the LIBOR discussion in the market in the first half of the year 2008.

Got it. So clearly Jain knew something was amiss. What role did he play in facilitating it? 

The goal of the reorganization of the seating order in the trading division in London in the year 2005, which resulted in traders and submitters sitting together, was to achieve an open communication between both functions, especially also with regard to the LIBOR. The reorganization of the GFFX sector was initiated by Mr. Jain who was also decisively responsible for this; Mr. Cloete implemented the reorganization.

 

There is a connection with regard to timing between the reorganization of the GFFX division (with the HMO desk), the change in the trading strategy up to making intense use of IBOR spreads and the generation of profits in a range which had never been realized previously (or afterwards).

 

The MMD desk had substantially higher earnings in the period between August 2007 and March/April 2010 than had been previously or subsequently generated. There was a significant increase in the for the first time in August 2007. The profits were particularly drastic in 2008 (EUR 1.9 billion). The profits were also clearly increased at EUR1.0 billion in 2009. Mr. Jain knew the trading strategy and the trading result of the MMD desk at the latest starting on 30 August 2007. 'Mr. Cioete explained to him the trading strategy of the MMD desk and indicated that, especially the trader Christian Bittar had been very successful.

Christian, who is Christian?

Regular readers will remember Bittar. He's the former prop trader at Deutsche Bank who profited handsomely by betting on the direction of rates he conspired with others to manipulate (recall that when it comes to betting on the direction of rates, it’s much easier to make winning trades when you collude with colleagues to fix the benchmark). Readers may also recall that via a bit of digging which began with the LinkedIn profile of someone else named Christian Bittar, we were soon tossed down the Lieborgate rabbit hole only to find that on the other end was the secretive world of Swiss hedge funds and private banks. We later detailed how Deutsche Bank went about ridding itself of Bittar who was once one of the firm’s most well-paid traders. Most recently, thanks to the now-public e-mails used by the Justice Department to make its case against the bank, we found out exactly what Christian said on the way to influencing the fixings. Here are some particularly amusing quotes from Christian's rate rigging days: "Ok, let’s see if we can hurt them a little bit more then.""My cash desk will be against us so we’ll have to do some lobbying.” And best of all "LET'S TAKE THEM ON" (those are Christian's all caps). 

Wow. So how well did Jain know Bittar? 

The relationship of Mr. Bittar to his superiors was quite remarkable. Mr. Bittar was the predominant trader in the GFFX division and was also treated accordingly. Mr. Jaln, who was Global Head of Global Markets in 2008, knew and promoted Mr. Bittar and supported Mr. Bittar's entitlement to a bonus before Dr. Ackermann, as is apparent from a telephone call between Mr. Jain and Dr. Ackermann on 7 January 2007 in which Mr. Jain referred to Christian Bittar and Carl Maine, among other words, as  guys, they are the best people on the street" and best guys we have got.”

That's right. Anshu Jain, CEO of Deutsche Bank until last month once referred to one of Wall Street's most notorious rate riggers as one of "the best guys we have got."

And on, and on, and on.

The report (embedded below) contains voluminous evidence of nefarious activities which we'll outline in still more detail later, but for now, here are the key conclusions from BaFin regarding Jain:

Mr. Jain had the function as Global Head of Global Markets up to and including March 2009.

 

Mr. Jain must be charged with-the fact that there was an organization and business environment in the GFFX division, for which he was responsible as the Global Head of Global Markets until 31 March 2009 and subsequently as the member of the Management Board with the responsibility for behaviour involving the exploitation of conflicts of interests and that he ignored organizational duties under Sec. 25a KWG in conjunction with MaRisk as well as other provisions in the law, also including incorrect submissions.

 

Mr. Jain created an environment by the physical and functional restructuring of the business GFFX division in the year 2005, involving also a change in the seating order of the trading floor in London which he initiated in which conflicts of interest between traders and submitters arose or were strengthened. Traders and submitters could communicate openly with each other in this environment that had been created, and the consequence was that traders and submitters notified each other about their requests for LIBOR and EURIBOR submissions. These functions were also not (any longer) separated by Chinese walls.

 

Mr. Jain has been proven to have learned about discussion in the market concerning the susceptibility of the LIBOR to manipulation in 2008. However, he did not draw any consequences for DB (in the form of investigations) as a result of these indications in the market.

And finally, the accusation that may prove most damaging of all: 

There is suspicion that Mr. Jain might have knowingly made incorrect statements in his IBOR related Interview with the Deutsche Bundesbank on 5 October 2012. Mr Jain stated in this interview that he started having doubts about the fixing of the LIBOR for the first time in the first quarter of 2011 and that, in 2008, he had no knowledge about the LIBDR discussions.

There it is. The suggestion that Anshu Jain lied to the Bundesbank about LIBOR rigging at Deutsche Bank in what certainly appears to be an attempt to cover up his own complicity (or at least acquiescence) in the routine manipulation of the world's most important benchmark rates. 

So three years after the crisis, the bank was busy firing the Eric Ben-Artzis of the world and promoting the Anshu Jains. If ever there were proof that Deutsche Bank's corporate culture remained utterly corrupt years after 2008, surely this it.

The full BaFin report is below.

Baf in Deutsche Report

Deutsche Bank Stunner: An Inside Look At Former CEO's Role In Liborgate

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Earlier this week in "The Inside Story Of How Deutsche Bank 'Deals With' Whistleblowers," we gave you a play-by-play account of how the bank summarily dismissed Dr. Eric Ben-Artzi after the former Goldmanite raised questions about how Deutsche valued its crisis-era derivatives book.

In short, the story is a reflection of what some say is a hopelessly corrupt corporate culture and indeed, recent events at the bank underscore the extent to which it is reeling from expensive settlements and rampant defections. Here’s a recap of Deutsche Bank’s recent trials and travails: 

In April, Deutsche settled rate rigging charges with the DoJ for $2.5 billion (or about $25,474 per employee). A month later, the bank paid $55 million to the SEC (an agency that’s been run by former Deutsche Bank employees and their close associates for years) in connection with allegations it deliberately mismarked its crisis-era LSS book to the tune of at least $5 billion. On May 8, the bank’s head of structured finance Elad Shraga — who was instrumental in helping Deutsche become "an award-winning arranger of asset- and mortgage-backed debt — left the firm after 15 years. Then on June 5, US Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the Justice Department would pursue new settlements with European banks over crisis-era MBS sales. Four days later, the bank’s headquarters were raided by authorities in connection with possible client tax evasion and on June 15, the firm’s global head of commercial real estate, Jonathan Pollack, defected to Blackstone. 

Oh, and both CEOs resigned on June 7. 

On June 26, FT revealed that BaFin, Germany’s financial "watchdog", had raised serious questions about whether outgoing co-CEO Anshu Jain had misled the Bundesbank about who knew what and when with regard to the bank’s participation in the manipulation of LIBOR among other possible infractions. Summarizing, we said that BaFin apparently thinks Anshu Jain might have known his traders were manipulating LIBOR and also might have taken around a half decade or so to punish a trader who PIMCO apparently caught manipulating IR swaps.

Now, the entire BaFin report (which was sent to Deutsche Bank in May) has leaked. Here’s WSJ

BaFin, the German financial watchdog, sent the report to Deutsche Bank’s management board on May 11, less than a month before the German lender unexpectedly announced that its co-chief executives, Anshu Jain and Jürgen Fitschen, planned to resign. Deutsche Bank officials said in June that the resignations weren’t the result of regulatory pressure.

 

Mr. Jain, whose resignation took effect June 30 and who is still employed by Deutsche Bank as a consultant, is singled out for especially harsh criticism in the letter for allegedly providing inadequate leadership and failing to stop manipulation of the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, and other market benchmarks. 

 


So you're saying Anshu Jain knew about LIBOR manipulation early on. Do you have any proof?

(From the report)

 

Mr. Jain had been informed already in 2008 about the discussions in the market relating to the susceptibility of the LIBOR to manipulation.

 

Mr. Falssola reported to Mr. Jain for the first time, according to the information available to EY about LIBOR submissions which deviated from the market by e-mall dated 21 August 2007.

 

In an e-mail dated 7 March 2008, Mr. Nicholls informed Mr. Jain, Mr. Cloete and Mr. Falssola that the Interbank markets were moving in a divergent direction and that there were banks which were trying to obtain liquidity for up to 50 basis points above the reference interest rate they had determined. The necessary conclusion based on this Information was that banks had reported reference rates which were too low.

Ok, but that could have been hearsay and it's not like anyone was really talking about it, right? 

An article appeared In the Wall Street Journal ("Bankers cast doubt on key rate amid crisis”) on 16 April 2008 In which there was a report about the concerns of market participants with regard to the reliability of the this involved and in one paragraph also the possibility of transmitting false Interest rates in order to profit from derivative transactions as well as the possibility of collusion among banks.

Hmm. Well, maybe Jain didn't read that article. 

This was followed by e-maii communications concerning this WSJ article between Mr. Boaz Weinstein (ZH: A Boaz sighting!) and Mr. Alan Cloete; Mr. Cloete stated that the LIBOR no longer represented a realistic ratio.

 

The discussion about the calculation of the LIBOR that made the rounds in the market following the WSJ article was the subject of two e-mails from Mr. Cloete to Mr. Jain on 20 April 2008 and 15 May 2008: Mr. Cloete referred in his e-malls to the rumors about the LIBOR noise about how libor noise around the LIBOR

 

This shows that Mr. Jain was informed about the LIBOR discussion in the market in the first half of the year 2008.

Got it. So clearly Jain knew something was amiss. What role did he play in facilitating it? 

The goal of the reorganization of the seating order in the trading division in London in the year 2005, which resulted in traders and submitters sitting together, was to achieve an open communication between both functions, especially also with regard to the LIBOR. The reorganization of the GFFX sector was initiated by Mr. Jain who was also decisively responsible for this; Mr. Cloete implemented the reorganization.

 

There is a connection with regard to timing between the reorganization of the GFFX division (with the HMO desk), the change in the trading strategy up to making intense use of IBOR spreads and the generation of profits in a range which had never been realized previously (or afterwards).

 

The MMD desk had substantially higher earnings in the period between August 2007 and March/April 2010 than had been previously or subsequently generated. There was a significant increase in the for the first time in August 2007. The profits were particularly drastic in 2008 (EUR 1.9 billion). The profits were also clearly increased at EUR1.0 billion in 2009. Mr. Jain knew the trading strategy and the trading result of the MMD desk at the latest starting on 30 August 2007. 'Mr. Cioete explained to him the trading strategy of the MMD desk and indicated that, especially the trader Christian Bittar had been very successful.

Christian, who is Christian?

Regular readers will remember Bittar. He's the former prop trader at Deutsche Bank who profited handsomely by betting on the direction of rates he conspired with others to manipulate (recall that when it comes to betting on the direction of rates, it’s much easier to make winning trades when you collude with colleagues to fix the benchmark). Readers may also recall that via a bit of digging which began with the LinkedIn profile of someone else named Christian Bittar, we were soon tossed down the Lieborgate rabbit hole only to find that on the other end was the secretive world of Swiss hedge funds and private banks. We later detailed how Deutsche Bank went about ridding itself of Bittar who was once one of the firm’s most well-paid traders. Most recently, thanks to the now-public e-mails used by the Justice Department to make its case against the bank, we found out exactly what Christian said on the way to influencing the fixings. Here are some particularly amusing quotes from Christian's rate rigging days: "Ok, let’s see if we can hurt them a little bit more then.""My cash desk will be against us so we’ll have to do some lobbying.” And best of all "LET'S TAKE THEM ON" (those are Christian's all caps). 

Wow. So how well did Jain know Bittar? 

The relationship of Mr. Bittar to his superiors was quite remarkable. Mr. Bittar was the predominant trader in the GFFX division and was also treated accordingly. Mr. Jaln, who was Global Head of Global Markets in 2008, knew and promoted Mr. Bittar and supported Mr. Bittar's entitlement to a bonus before Dr. Ackermann, as is apparent from a telephone call between Mr. Jain and Dr. Ackermann on 7 January 2007 in which Mr. Jain referred to Christian Bittar and Carl Maine, among other words, as  guys, they are the best people on the street" and best guys we have got.”

That's right. Anshu Jain, CEO of Deutsche Bank until last month once referred to one of Wall Street's most notorious rate riggers as one of "the best guys we have got."

And on, and on, and on.

The report (embedded below) contains voluminous evidence of nefarious activities which we'll outline in still more detail later, but for now, here are the key conclusions from BaFin regarding Jain:

Mr. Jain had the function as Global Head of Global Markets up to and including March 2009.

 

Mr. Jain must be charged with-the fact that there was an organization and business environment in the GFFX division, for which he was responsible as the Global Head of Global Markets until 31 March 2009 and subsequently as the member of the Management Board with the responsibility for behaviour involving the exploitation of conflicts of interests and that he ignored organizational duties under Sec. 25a KWG in conjunction with MaRisk as well as other provisions in the law, also including incorrect submissions.

 

Mr. Jain created an environment by the physical and functional restructuring of the business GFFX division in the year 2005, involving also a change in the seating order of the trading floor in London which he initiated in which conflicts of interest between traders and submitters arose or were strengthened. Traders and submitters could communicate openly with each other in this environment that had been created, and the consequence was that traders and submitters notified each other about their requests for LIBOR and EURIBOR submissions. These functions were also not (any longer) separated by Chinese walls.

 

Mr. Jain has been proven to have learned about discussion in the market concerning the susceptibility of the LIBOR to manipulation in 2008. However, he did not draw any consequences for DB (in the form of investigations) as a result of these indications in the market.

And finally, the accusation that may prove most damaging of all: 

There is suspicion that Mr. Jain might have knowingly made incorrect statements in his IBOR related Interview with the Deutsche Bundesbank on 5 October 2012. Mr Jain stated in this interview that he started having doubts about the fixing of the LIBOR for the first time in the first quarter of 2011 and that, in 2008, he had no knowledge about the LIBDR discussions.

There it is. The suggestion that Anshu Jain lied to the Bundesbank about LIBOR rigging at Deutsche Bank in what certainly appears to be an attempt to cover up his own complicity (or at least acquiescence) in the routine manipulation of the world's most important benchmark rates. 

So three years after the crisis, the bank was busy firing the Eric Ben-Artzis of the world and promoting the Anshu Jains. If ever there were proof that Deutsche Bank's corporate culture remained utterly corrupt years after 2008, surely this it.

The full BaFin report is below.

Baf in Deutsche Report

Frontrunning: July 17

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  • Back Greek talks or face chaos, Merkel tells German lawmakers (Reuters)
  • Fear of the Unknown Binds a Greek Deal With Few Believers (WSJ)
  • Grexit Still on the Table Even With EU’s Latest Band-Aid (BBG)
  • Donald Tusk warns of extremist political contagion (FT)
  • Germany, Not Greece, Should Exit the Euro (BBG)
  • Sabine Files Bankruptcy in New York as Oil Prices Fall (BBG)
  • Markets Bow to Central Bankers as Bonds Rise, Pound Strengthens (BBG)
  • China Unleashes $483 Billion Margin Trader to Stem Stock Rout (BBG)
  • Venture Capital Investments Hit $19.2 Billion in Second Quarter (WSJ)
  • Happy Meals make way for hearing aids in Japan CPI reshuffle as population ages (Reuters)
  • How China's Slowdown Is Worse Than You Think (BBG)
  • Irked by U.S., but EU keeps own spy projects quiet (Reuters)
  • Samsung scrapes to victory in proxy battle over $8 billion merger (Reuters)
  • Iran's conservatives take aim at nuclear deal (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* A shooter opened fire at two military recruiting centers in Tennessee, killing four marines before dying from a gunshot wound. The alleged gunman has been identified as Muhammad Youssef Abdulazeez, 24. (http://on.wsj.com/1TFRykt)

* The FCC is poised to reject $3.3 billion in discounts requested by partners of satellite-TV provider Dish in a $45 billion airwave auction earlier this year. (http://on.wsj.com/1LnBS2g)

* German regulators accused a half-dozen current Deutsche Bank executives of failing to stop or tell regulators about years of attempted market manipulation, according to a confidential report. (http://on.wsj.com/1OaeZia)

* Contrarian economists at Google and Stanford say the United States doesn't have a productivity problem, it has a measurement problem. (http://on.wsj.com/1LdPrmj)

* The Samsung conglomerate's controlling Lee family scored a victory in its battle against U.S. hedge fund Elliott Associates, as shareholders approved an $8 billion merger of two Samsung affiliates. (http://on.wsj.com/1LoLoSI)

* U.S. securities regulators are examining whether mutual-fund managers are dipping more deeply than allowed into their investors' money to compensate the brokerages that distribute their products. OppenheimerFunds, Franklin Templeton and J.P. Morgan Chase are among more than a dozen fund firms that have been reviewed by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which began a broad sweep of how companies sell their products about two years ago. (http://on.wsj.com/1OiOqrw)

 

FT

Online Casino operator 888 Holdings Plc is close to victory over rival GVC Holdings Plc to buy Bwin Party , the Internet gaming group. A deal announcement could be expected as soon as Friday.

British retailer Marks and Spencer Group PLC's clothing and other non-food businesses head, John Dixon, has quit the retailer.

Britain has cut its stake in Lloyds Banking Group by a further percentage point to about 14.98 percent, accelerating its drive to return the bailed-out lender to full private ownership.

European Union antitrust regulators are investigating whether one of the world's biggest chipmakers, Qualcomm , uses illegal tactics to shut out rivals.

 

NYT

* Steve Huffman, who co-founded Reddit in 2005, is back at the online message board as its new CEO. Upon his return, Huffman proposed a new content policy for the site that would effectively ban spam, illegal activity and harassment, as well as the posting of "private or confidential information" and sexual content involving minors. (http://nyti.ms/1HTuEgR)

* As the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates later this year, Republican critics have dialed down the volume of their complaints, while Democrats are now fretting loudly about the path of monetary policy. After her appearance before a House committee on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen was once again pressed by Democrats concerned that the Fed will raise rates too soon. (http://nyti.ms/1HTuYwj)

* Aspen Foods is recalling nearly two million pounds of frozen chicken products after three people in Minnesota became ill with infections from salmonella. (http://nyti.ms/1HTvdHE)

* Uber is now becoming an unexpected proxy in the campaign for the White House. It has center stage in the emerging debate between the left and the right over the future of work, the responsibilities of employers, the virtues of technology and the necessity of workplace regulation. (http://nyti.ms/1HTvAlE)

* European finance officials pledged support and money for Greece on Thursday, even as the prospects of reaching a final bailout deal were clouded by political uncertainty in Athens and German doubts about the need to preserve Greek membership in the eurozone. (http://nyti.ms/1HTvH0g)

* The Federal Communications Commission on Thursday approved plans to prevent large businesses from gaining access to small-business discounts in a much-anticipated auction of airwaves expected early next year. (http://nyti.ms/1HTvQ47)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** A pipeline owned by Nexen Energy ULC has spilled about 31,500 barrels of oil "emulsion" in northern Alberta, the province's energy watchdog says. The Alberta Energy Regulator said late on Thursday that it was responding to a pipeline rupture about 36 kilometers southeast of Fort McMurray. (http://bit.ly/1DkfnEY)

** Magna International Inc will pay 1.75 billion euros ($2.47 billion) to buy Getrag of Germany, the largest independent maker of automotive transmissions, a move that bolsters Magna's presence in a vehicle system that is crucial to reduce fuel consumption and cut emissions as government regulations grow more stringent. (http://bit.ly/1fPtEV8)

** Home-renovation company Rona Inc said Thursday it is acquiring 18 franchise stores in Quebec and two in the Ottawa area for an undisclosed price. The Quebec-based company says it will compete more effectively with large U.S. rivals by eliminating its franchise structure. (http://bit.ly/1DkgcgU)

NATIONAL POST

** Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc, Canada's largest mattress retailer, fell in its trading debut after raising C$300 million ($232 million) in an initial public offering. (http://bit.ly/1DkgwfK)

** Bank of Montreal agreed to pay $16 million to end a U.S. lawsuit claiming that a lender it bought caused two bankrupt Florida funds to lose money in imprisoned swindler Thomas Petters' $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme. Thursday's settlement with the trustee liquidating the Palm Beach Finance funds was disclosed in a filing with the U.S. bankruptcy court in West Palm Beach, Florida, and requires court approval. (http://bit.ly/1DkgBA2)

** Bombardier Inc said Pratt & Whitney Canada's John Di Bert has been named chief financial officer, replacing Pierre Alary, who announced his retirement in April. Di Bert, who was most recently vice president of customer service at Pratt & Whitney's Canadian unit, will take up his new post on Aug. 10, Bombardier said. (http://bit.ly/1DkgRit)

 

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

- Several trust companies said they have suspended umbrella trusts, noting the demand for these kinds of trusts has declined, the newspaper reported.

- CITIC Securities Co said that it had issued 8.5 billion yuan ($1.37 billion) worth of five-year subordinated bonds on Thursday, at a yield of 5.0 percent.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

- China will encourage private companies to invest in the research, production and maintenance of weapons, the paper said, citing Xu Zhanbin, vice president of the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense.

CHINA DAILY

- China's outbound direct investment in the non-financial sector rose to $56 billion in the first half of 2015, up 29.2 percent from the previous year, the newspaper reported, citing officials.

Frontrunning: July 20

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  • Gold Plunges to Lowest Since 2010 (BBG)
  • In Greek crisis, one big unhappy EU family (Reuters)
  • Greek Banks Reopen Their Doors (WSJ)
  • Greek reshuffle hints at autumn election (FT)
  • Angela Merkel signals conditions for Greek debt talks (FT)
  • Dollar hits three-month high on rate view, pans gold (Reuters)
  • History Shows Iran Could Surprise the Oil Market (BBG)
  • ‘Charlie Hebdo’ Will Cease Publishing Cartoons of Prophet Muhammad (Newsweek)
  • Lockheed to buy United Tech's Sikorsky for over $8 billion (Reuters)
  • Ukraine extends creditor talks as threat of default looms (FT)
  • The $42 Billion Debt Trap That Putin Has Three Years to Escape (BBG)
  • Omega’s Einhorn Sees Another Two Years Left in U.S. Bull Market (BBG)
  • Barclays Said to Consider Cutting Quarter of Jobs in Cost Push (BBG)
  • Greek maritime industry fears being punished for its success (FT)
  • Barge Carrying 1 Million Gallons of Naphtha Catches Fire Near Houston, Texas (NBC)
  • Rules for Signing Mortgages Online Boosts Black Knight (BBG)
  • PayPal’s Debut Market Value Tops EBay’s as Investors Seek Growth (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* The Obama administration has launched an aggressive campaign to try to allay the fears of allies in the Middle East over the Iran nuclear deal. (http://on.wsj.com/1HDHrae)

* Syngenta plans a series of meetings with investors as it contends with frustration from some shareholders over its rejection of a roughly $45 billion takeover effort by rival agribusiness giant Monsanto Co. (http://on.wsj.com/1Swm4uw)

* The Dodd-Frank regulatory overhaul, the most sweeping financial legislation in a generation, turns five this week. Debate over the law's impact continues to rage. Proponents say it made the financial system safer by making banks less risky. Detractors say the law has hurt smaller banks and hamstrung the economy. (http://on.wsj.com/1Sw9A68)

* Across China, a painful restructuring toward slower, more sustainable growth has pared manufacturing's share of the world's second-largest economy, forcing companies to adapt or founder. (http://on.wsj.com/1KfrFGm)

* The ruling executive committee of soccer's world governing body returned to Zurich on Sunday for its first meeting since FIFA president Sepp Blatter announced in June that he would be resigning. The top item on Monday's agenda is setting a date for the hastily called presidential election, which is expected to fall between December and March. (http://on.wsj.com/1CR1e7k)

 

FT

Royal Dutch Shell, which is all set to acquire rival BG Group Plc, may cut its capital expenditure for the year by several billion dollars from the previously announced $33 billion figure.

The government of Italy is planning to begin the floatation of its post office, Poste Italiane, in the first week of August and is expecting to raise about 4 billion euros from a 40 percent stake listing.

Dividends paid by the companies in the UK reached their highest level in the second quarter since the 2008 financial crisis. About 29.2 billion stg was paid in dividends during the quarter, including special dividends.

 

NYT

* German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated her insistence that there be no reduction in Greek debt, but said other relief measures could be discussed. (http://nyti.ms/1Kfo5vX)

* For Greece, it's the economic equivalent of the Big Bang. So far, the questions about the tentative Greek bailout deal have focused on the pact's austere insistence on further cost cuts and new tax increases. But just as disruptive to Greek life could be the fundamental changes the pact is demanding in the cozy old ways that the country conducts business - changes meant to make Greece a more modern, efficient eurozone economy. (http://nyti.ms/1CKoeF8)

* Lockheed Martin has agreed to buy Sikorsky, the maker of the Black Hawk helicopters used by the United States military, people with knowledge of the matter said on Sunday. The deal, which one person said would be worth more than $8 billion, could be announced as soon as Monday. (http://nyti.ms/1JaDo7L)

* Next week, when Microsoft releases Windows 10, the latest version of the company's operating system, the software will offer a mix of the familiar and new to the people who run earlier versions of it on more than 1.5 billion computers and other devices. But Microsoft will not charge customers to upgrade Windows on computers, a shift that shows how power dynamics in the tech industry have changed. (http://nyti.ms/1HDGDCs)

 

Hong Kong

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

-- The ICAC commissioner has for the first time confirmed that the agency was considering the possibility of acquiring technology that could intercept residents' computer and mobile phone data from Milan-based Hacking Team, a controversial cybersecurity company. (bit.ly/1HJMWSF)

-- China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank intends to make use of Hong Kong as a bond-issuing platform, Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah told Xinhua in an interview. Tsang said he would lead a delegation to visit European countries covered by the "One Belt, One Road" initiative in the next two or three months. (bit.ly/1Id5GOi)

THE STANDARD

-- A Legislative Council security panel member has urged Cathay Pacific Airways to review transport procedures after one of 13 bags containing NZ$1 million ($651,300.00) went missing from a cargo transfer service. The transportation service is provided by Hong Kong Airport Services - a wholly owned subsidiary of Cathay Pacific. (bit.ly/1LxdlIi)

-- The local second-hand property market fell further at the weekend as new home projects siphoned off most buyers, said local agencies. Only seven deals were sealed in the top 10 blue- chip estates monitored by Centaline Property Agency, a 22.2 percent drop from a week ago and a 12-week low. Midland Realty saw only seven deals, an 11-week low. (bit.ly/1fh1EJ6)

-- Hong Kong's airport saw steady growth in the first half, with passenger throughput up 9.1 percent to 33.6 million compared with a year ago. Flight movements rose 4.4 percent to 199,620, while the cargo volume handled also edged up by 0.6 percent to 2.1 million tonnes. (bit.ly/1CQJQj4)

HONG KONG ECONOMIC JOURNAL

-- Intime Retail (Group) Co Ltd said Shen Guojun would transfer a total 398 million shares, or 18.18 percent of the issued share capital, to his daughter, sister and other investors, ceasing to be a controlling shareholder of the company. Alibaba Group will become the single largest shareholder of the Chinese department store operator.

 

Britain

The Times

Barclays Plc is planning to cut more than 30,000 jobs within two years after firing Antony Jenkins, its chief executive, this month. (thetim.es/1CKc13g)

Ladbrokes Plc and Coral are close to agreeing to terms of a 3.5 billion stg merger that would create Britain's biggest bookmaker. (thetim.es/1Sw07M1)

The Guardian

The BBC could be part-funded by subscriptions on top of a licence fee in the future, John Whittingdale, the culture secretary has said, stressing that every option would be open to discussion in the government's forthcoming review of the corporation. (bit.ly/1VijkVO)

Prime Minister David Cameron has said the UK should "step up and do more" in the fight against Isis in Iraq and Syria, in the clearest sign yet that he is committed to sending UK forces to join US-led air strikes in Syria. (bit.ly/1e9243t)

The Telegraph

The owners of Travelodge are preparing to check out of the hotel business after appointing Deutsche Bank AG to advise them on a 1 billion stg sale or stock market float of the company. (bit.ly/1CKfcIs)

Seabrook Crisps, the family-owned Yorkshire snacks business, has been sold to the private equity arm of Lloyds Banking Group for 35 million stg. (bit.ly/1Kf1gpm)

Sky News

Fidelity Growth Partners Europe has agreed to inject the money into Made.com (IPO-MADE.L) alongside Partech Ventures, a Paris-based investment firm. (bit.ly/1Viu1HV)

John McFarlane, new chairman of Barclays, will on Monday be named as a new member of the Treasury's Financial Services Trade and Investment Board. (bit.ly/1JqzG5A)

The Independent

Holidaymakers in Greece are already being warned about VAT rises. A letter has surfaced on Twitter informing guests at the Athens Ledra Hotel that VAT on food and drink has increased 10 per cent. (ind.pn/1I8GPgi)

Tsipras Fights To Keep Greek Bailout Alive Amid Party Rebellion: Full Vote Preview

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The Greek parliament will vote on a second batch of prior actions on Wednesday including EU rules on bank resolutions and civil justice reform amid protests from public sector union ADEDY which has pledged to "continue the battle so that the new barbaric bailout does not pass and is overturned," and so that Greece does fall under the "neocolonial control" of Brussels. 

Although there will be a third vote during the first week of August on pension reforms and taxes on farmers (these issues were removed from Wednesday’s bill with Brussels’ blessing), formal discussions around a third program for Greece will begin immediately if, as expected, lawmakers approve today’s bill. 

Although Alexis Tsipras will likely get the votes he needs, Wednesday’s proceedings will be watched closely for signs that Syriza has splintered further after the premier sacked dissenters in a cabinet “reshuffle” following last week’s vote in which 39 Syriza MPs refused to support the new bailout deal. That cut Tsipras support within the coalition government down to 123, meaning he is heavily dependent upon opposition support for the new program and as Reuters notes, there’s some speculation that if his support within the coalition drops below 120 votes, the PM would be forced to resign. Here’s more

Together with his coalition partners from the right-wing Independent Greeks, Tsipras has 162 seats in the 300-seat parliament. But last week's rebellion cut his support to just 123 votes and any further defections may be seen as undermining prospects for reform.

 

Some government officials have suggested that if support dropped below 120 MPs - the minimum required to win a confidence vote if parliament voted with the lowest allowable quorum of 240 lawmakers - Tsipras would have to resign.

And here’s more color from Bloomberg:

The Greek leader is fighting for political survival after abandoning his opposition to austerity earlier this month with his country on the brink of financial collapse. He’s trying to hold off elections long enough to steer the country through the bailout negotiations, Michaelides said.

 

The plenary debate began at about 9 a.m. in Athens with the vote in the Greek parliament scheduled for around midnight. The bill under consideration includes the transposition of the European Union’s Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive into national law, as well as an overhaul of Code of Civil Procedure.

 

"There is a risk of the number of rebels growing,"said Michael Michaelides, a fixed-income strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London."It will be a question of whether Tsipras can maintain the party under control to prevent unwanted political developments."

Yes, "unwanted political developments," like a vote of confidence which would be the first step towards early elections.

Although it seems likely that Tsipras would win a confidence vote if it came to that, the fact that the PM is reliant on opposition support to secure the bailout suggests that the political situation is simply untenable going forward. Deutsche Bank has more on the "unprecedented political configuration."

The agreement has come at a significant political cost to the Greek Prime Minister. Only 122 out of 149 SYRIZA MPs voted in favour of the prior actions in last week's vote, with legislative approval heavily reliant on 106 affirmative votes from opposition MPs. Notable negative votes included former finance minister Varoufakis, speaker of the house Konstantopoulou and five government ministers. This prompted a small cabinet re-shuffle over the weekend to replace dissenting ministers. Developments ahead need to be analysed against four broader observations relating to Greek politics.

 

The PM can no longer rely on his own parliamentary group to pass legislation, but despite this the government has legally not lost its parliamentary majority. A government change (and potential early elections) can constitutionally only be precipitated by a formal vote of confidence, but this has not taken place and many dissenting SYRIZA MPs have stated that they still support the government.

 

The Prime Minister may no longer control the SYRIZA party either. This is a separate entity from the party's parliamentary group, governed by a 201- strong Central Committee that has the power to call a vote of no confidence on party leader Tsipras as well as deciding on parliamentary candidates during general elections. A letter signed by more than 50% of the party's central committee last week expressed opposition to the Euro leaders’ agreement. The Committee has yet to convene following last week's parliamentary vote, though it may do so in coming days. The party’s official reaction to the agreement will need to be closely watched.

Today's vote is thus a litmus test for Syriza. That is, the key issue is whether the party splinters further or if some of those who broke with Tsipras last week return to the fold on Wednesday.

If Tsipras' support within the party weakens further, it will have broader implications for how the political landscape will look once the bailout is official. The PM is expected to call a party meeting in September to discuss "the day after" (a reference to the fact that by then, Greece is expected to have formalized the third bailout). At that juncture, Syriza "will split in two groups, the followers of Tsipras and the leftist wing led by Lafazanis," one unnamed source told MNI on Tuesday.

"The Syriza party must ... accept the social concerns and the expectations of the thousands of people that support us," Tsipras said ahead of the vote.

When it comes to "accepting the social concerns" of the party's constituents, one good place to start might have been respecting the referendum "no" vote.

Alas, that ship has sailed.


Next Steps For Greek Politics: The Syriza "Endgame" According To Deutsche Bank

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As detailed here earlier, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras will attempt to win back the support of more than 30 Syriza lawmakers who defected to vote against the first set of bailout prior actions last week. The move destabilized an already tenuous political situation, laid bare the divisions within Tsipras’ party, and raised the possibility that the PM could face a vote of no confidence and early elections. 

For now, Tsipras’ plan is to pass the second set of prior actions with the help of opposition lawmakers, begin formal discussions on the third bailout program, and convene a Syriza meeting in September to discuss how the party can move forward considering all that’s happened since the group swept to power in January on an anti-austerity mandate which has largely fallen by the wayside.

Here to help sort out what has become a rather convoluted political situation and discuss next steps and the "endgame" for Syriza is Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos.

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From Deutsche Bank

Potential political paths ahead

We see the situation as potentially leading to three different political outcomes over the next few weeks.

The first is near-term political instability that would put ESM negotiations on hold and return pressure on the Greek banking system ahead of the August 20th ECB bond redemption. This would be provoked by the PM tendering his government's resignation either by losing additional government MPs in coming parliamentary votes or by losing support in the party's Central Committee. Either would not necessarily cause a general election, with a government of national unity under very limited SYRIZA MP support possible until ESM talks are concluded (only 48 out of 149 MPs would be needed). Irrespectively, talks would be delayed, and the possibility of a more substantial shift in the SYRIZA position against the agreement could not be ruled out, whether before or after a new general election.

The second potential outcome is a Greek PM decision to more aggressively position himself against internal party dissent and in favour of program implementation. This would likely involve a request from dissenting MPs to resign their parliamentary seats or, in case of refusal, exclusion from the SYRIZA parliamentary group. Such a decision would aim to consolidate the PM’s influence, with the ultimate aim of moving the party towards a more moderate direction in a future general election. Current electoral law stipulates that a general election within 12 months of the last one takes place under a "list" system, providing the Greek PM with the political cover to steer SYRIZA's candidate list towards a more moderate direction.

Still, any such decisions need to be approved by the party's Central Committee. The latter is similarly responsible for excluding members from the party, even if the PM excludes MPs from the parliamentary group. Any such decision therefore requires the PM to take the risk of more formally splintering the party, with potential unpredictable results given his more uncertain influence over the party's Central Committee.

The third - and what we believe the most likely outcome in coming weeks - is a continuation of the last few days' status quo: persistent attempts by the PM to work through internal party dissent as well as the ESM negotiations, but without actively precipitating political change. In this instance the Greek PM would continue to preside over a de facto minority government, even if this is not explicitly acknowledged. A confidence vote may be called but dissenting MPs would still vote in favour and/or opposition parties would abstain. Any eventual ESM agreement would be ratified by a broad parliamentary majority, but with very strong SYRIZA dissents. Early elections could be called after. The benefit to this outcome is that near-term political uncertainty would be avoided, with dissenting and non-dissenting SYRIZA MPs as well as the opposition likely wanting to avoid near-term political instability. The cost would be that government commitment to the agreement would remain weak, maintaining the risk of a breakdown in negotiations as ESM negotiations get under way.

Whatever the outcome above, events over the next few weeks are most likely to continue to be driven by the PM's personal decisions as well as internal developments within SYRIZA. This will in turn depend on the ongoing economic and political cost of program implementation, with large upfront fiscal tightening already being legislated but additional fiscal and structural reform commitments needed to conclude the 3rd ESM program negotiations. The PMs own approval ratings will also matter, with opinion polls released after the negotiations continuing to show higher popularity ratings than other political leaders as well as a strong SYRIZA lead over other opposition parties. It remains to be seen how long this persists given the economic costs of the agreement, but the longer support is maintained, the greater the PM's influence over internal party politics is likely to be.

The endgame

Irrespective of the near-term outcomes above, the inherent contradiction of program implementation by a government from within which the bulk of opposition originates will have to be resolved. It is unlikely that uncertainty around the stability of the Greek economy and banking system recedes until this is the case.

Resolution could be led by Greek PM and current party president Tsipras moving SYRIZA in a more moderate direction followed by an early general election later this year after ESM negotiations have concluded. This would increase the odds of a government with greater commitment to implementation, irrespective of the electoral outcome. It would however risk a major splintering of the party or Tsipras' own loss of authority in the process. An alternative is that the party retains its own internal contradictions, but that a government of national unity with broader-based participation is formed irrespectively. However, it remains unclear if this could materialize without an early general election, which the opposition may eventually request.

Either way, implementation risks are likely to remain strong until greater political change materializes, likely driven by the strong internal contradictions within the current ruling party, but ultimately settled by the Greek PMs own political initiatives. 

Will The Oil Patch Bust Trigger Recession?

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Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

This seemingly inexhaustible credit line is now drying up, with severely negative consequences for oil producers with debt that's coming due.

Could the oil patch bust triggered by oil plummeting from $100/barrel to $50/barrel kick the U.S. into recession? Longtime correspondent B.C. recently observed: The question is whether the incipient recession in the energy and energy-related transport sectors is sufficient this time around to be the proximate cause of a US/global recession and real estate bust.

To help answer the question, B.C. sent this FRED chart of key measures of economic activity in Texas, America's GDP and industrial production and the price of oil. The chart may look busy but the key indicators are oil (the blue line that fell off a cliff and has formed a fish hook), the red line (GDP adjusted for inflation, i.e. real GDP), the dotted line (industrial production) and the remaining two lines that reflect the leading indicators and economic activity in Texas.

Six months into the energy bust, the leading index for Texas has hit the zero line, U.S. industrial production has rolled over but real GDP hasn't budged. So far, the impact of dramatically lower oil revenues has been limited to the oil patch, but the potential for contagion is still present.

As B.C. noted:

The last time the energy sector experienced a similar bust as is emerging today and clearly evident in Texas was in 1985-86, which occurred coincident with the crash in the price of oil and the onset of the S&L Crisis.

 

However, the US economy overall did not experience recession, but Industrial Production (manufacturing) decelerated to around 0% even as real GDP did not get close to "stall speed", owing primarily to the effects of Baby Boomers entered the phase of life for peak spending and household formation.

 

Also, it did not hurt that the constant-US$ price of oil fell from $37 to $16 (similar scale as the recent drop from $100+ to $50/barrel) and the price of gasoline to below $2/gallon.

In other words, back in the 1980s oil bust, the drop in gasoline prices helped consumer spending and the mass entry of Baby Boomers into the housing market provided a source of broad-based economic stimulus.

The recent drop in gasoline prices has not stimulated consumer spending much, thwarting economists' expectations of a big dividend from the oil bust.

Housing formation remains historically weak as home prices have soared out of reach of young families struggling with stagnant wages, crushing student loans and an uneven job market that rewards a few and leaves many with insecure incomes.

So these positives are either weak or missing in action.

But what's different this time is the $550 billion that has been loaned to energy producers: Since early 2010, energy producers have raised $550 billion of new bonds and loans as the Federal Reserve held borrowing costs near zero, according to Deutsche Bank AG. With oil prices plunging, investors are questioning the ability of some issuers to meet their debt obligations. Research firm CreditSights Inc. predicts the default rate for energy junk bonds will double to eight percent next year.

This seemingly inexhaustible credit line is now drying up, with severely negative consequences for oil producers with debt that's coming due and has to be rolled into new loans: Is The US Shale Industry About To Run Out Of Lifelines? (Zero Hedge).

Should oil resume its slide (and there are plentiful reasons this is likely--Saudi Arabia's stated intention to increase market share, Iran's plans to double its production and shale oil producers needing to maintain cash flow to make interest payments), then the well of ready credit could quickly dry up completely, pushing marginal producers and their lenders into insolvency.

What's also different is a looming global recession, a $900 billion subprime auto-loan bubble that's about to burst and an echo-bubble in housing that's threatening to follow the first housing bubble's trajectory of crash and burn.

The row of dominoes swaying unsteadily in these stiff winds won't take much to topple.

Greek Lawmakers Clear The Way For Formal Bailout Discussions

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Update36 Syriza lawmakers did not support the bill.

As expected, the Greek parliament has approved a second set of prior measures, clearing the way for formal discussions on a third bailout program for the debt-stricken country.

As Bloomberg notes, "several lawmakers of governing Syriza party, including Parliament Speaker Zoi Konstantopoulou, former deputy Finance Minister Nadia Valavani didn’t support bill."

As a reminder, Wednesday's vote was largely a formality as the measures - which included EU rules on bank resolutions and civil justice reform - weren't expected to be as contentious as those presented to lawmakers last week. Alexis Tsipras is desperately trying to regain the support of Syriza MPs who have refused to support the conditions creditors have attached to the €86 billion ESM aid package.

Although negotiations will now likely begin within the next few days, another vote (on pensions and taxes for farmers) is expected during the first week of August.

Earlier today, MNI - citing unnamed sources - reported that Tsipras will look to hold elections as soon as the third bailout is in place. Greek government officials promptly denied the report. 

As a reminder, here's what's next for Greek politics, courtesy of Deutsche Bank.

*  *  *

From Deutsche Bank

Potential political paths ahead

We see the situation as potentially leading to three different political outcomes over the next few weeks.

The first is near-term political instability that would put ESM negotiations on hold and return pressure on the Greek banking system ahead of the August 20th ECB bond redemption. This would be provoked by the PM tendering his government's resignation either by losing additional government MPs in coming parliamentary votes or by losing support in the party's Central Committee. Either would not necessarily cause a general election, with a government of national unity under very limited SYRIZA MP support possible until ESM talks are concluded (only 48 out of 149 MPs would be needed). Irrespectively, talks would be delayed, and the possibility of a more substantial shift in the SYRIZA position against the agreement could not be ruled out, whether before or after a new general election.

The second potential outcome is a Greek PM decision to more aggressively position himself against internal party dissent and in favour of program implementation. This would likely involve a request from dissenting MPs to resign their parliamentary seats or, in case of refusal, exclusion from the SYRIZA parliamentary group. Such a decision would aim to consolidate the PM’s influence, with the ultimate aim of moving the party towards a more moderate direction in a future general election. Current electoral law stipulates that a general election within 12 months of the last one takes place under a "list" system, providing the Greek PM with the political cover to steer SYRIZA's candidate list towards a more moderate direction.

Still, any such decisions need to be approved by the party's Central Committee. The latter is similarly responsible for excluding members from the party, even if the PM excludes MPs from the parliamentary group. Any such decision therefore requires the PM to take the risk of more formally splintering the party, with potential unpredictable results given his more uncertain influence over the party's Central Committee

The third - and what we believe the most likely outcome in coming weeks - is a continuation of the last few days' status quo: persistent attempts by the PM to work through internal party dissent as well as the ESM negotiations, but without actively precipitating political change. In this instance the Greek PM would continue to preside over a de facto minority government, even if this is not explicitly acknowledged. A confidence vote may be called but dissenting MPs would still vote in favour and/or opposition parties would abstain. Any eventual ESM agreement would be ratified by a broad parliamentary majority, but with very strong SYRIZA dissents. Early elections could be called after. The benefit to this outcome is that near-term political uncertainty would be avoided, with dissenting and non-dissenting SYRIZA MPs as well as the opposition likely wanting to avoid near-term political instability. The cost would be that government commitment to the agreement would remain weak, maintaining the risk of a breakdown in negotiations as ESM negotiations get under way.

Whatever the outcome above, events over the next few weeks are most likely to continue to be driven by the PM's personal decisions as well as internal developments within SYRIZA. This will in turn depend on the ongoing economic and political cost of program implementation, with large upfront fiscal tightening already being legislated but additional fiscal and structural reform commitments needed to conclude the 3rd ESM program negotiations. The PMs own approval ratings will also matter, with opinion polls released after the negotiations continuing to show higher popularity ratings than other political leaders as well as a strong SYRIZA lead over other opposition parties. It remains to be seen how long this persists given the economic costs of the agreement, but the longer support is maintained, the greater the PM's influence over internal party politics is likely to be.

The endgame

Irrespective of the near-term outcomes above, the inherent contradiction of program implementation by a government from within which the bulk of opposition originates will have to be resolved. It is unlikely that uncertainty around the stability of the Greek economy and banking system recedes until this is the case.

Resolution could be led by Greek PM and current party president Tsipras moving SYRIZA in a more moderate direction followed by an early general election later this year after ESM negotiations have concluded. This would increase the odds of a government with greater commitment to implementation, irrespective of the electoral outcome. It would however risk a major splintering of the party or Tsipras' own loss of authority in the process. An alternative is that the party retains its own internal contradictions, but that a government of national unity with broader-based participation is formed irrespectively. However, it remains unclear if this could materialize without an early general election, which the opposition may eventually request.

Either way, implementation risks are likely to remain strong until greater political change materializes, likely driven by the strong internal contradictions within the current ruling party, but ultimately settled by the Greek PMs own political initiatives.

Grexit Remains Most Likely Outcome For JPMorgan

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On Wednesday evening, Greece took another step toward transforming itself into a vassal state of Brussels when lawmakers passed a second set of prior actions ahead of formal discussions around a third program for Athens. The vote itself was largely a formality, as the measures under consideration -  which included EU rules on bank resolutions and civil justice reform - weren’t as contentious as those Tsipras crammed through parliament last Thursday. 

Nevertheless, the vote was important as a litmus test for Syriza. Tsipras executed a cabinet reshuffle late last week after 39 members of his coalition failed to support the first set of bailout prior actions, and analysts were watching Wednesday’s vote closely to see if more Syriza MPs rebelled.

While the number of defectors fell, 31 still failed to support the measures, betraying a still-divided party heading into what are expected to be weeks-long negotiations between Athens and Brussels on the final terms of the third bailout. Here’s more color from BBC:

After another long debate, and plenty of angry exchanges, parliament approved the new reforms in the early hours of the morning.

 

More than 30 MPs from the governing coalition voted against the measures - but crucially for Alexis Tsipras the number of rebels was slightly lower than last week.

 

Mr Tsipras was defiant telling parliament that he didn't really approve of the deal that had been imposed upon him by the rest of the eurozone. But he stressed that it was the only way to keep Greece in the single currency.

 

Negotiations will now begin on approving the terms of a third bailout, with the aim of completing a deal by the middle of next month. 

 

It's a tight timetable with scepticism on both sides. And Mr Tsipras still has to decide whether a successful conclusion of negotiations should be followed by early elections.

Yes, early elections, which MNI suggested will occur immediately following the implementation of the new program (Greek officials promptly denied this "rumor").

Whatever the case, Deutsche Bank is unquestionably correct that there’s something quite absurd about the adoption of the new bailout terms being left to a government whose leader openly opposes the deal. "The inherent contradiction of program implementation by a government from within which the bulk of opposition originates will have to be resolved," the bank said on Wednesday.

And Deutsche isn’t alone in their skepticism. Here’s JP Morgan on why no one "should put the odds of Greece staying in the euro above 50%".

From JP Morgan

Greek politics and an economy in flux

The path ahead looks long and difficult. The program is likely to impose a significant fiscal tightening on an economy which is already back in recession, is struggling with a dysfunctional banking system, and where confidence has suffered a big shock. It is tough to know how near-term downward pressure on activity will interact with Greek politics. For many Northern European countries the third program represents a "last chance" for Greek participation in the euro to be made viable. Hence, discussion likely will turn to euro exit immediately should the program fail to be agreed or implemented. 

For now, we would not put the odds of Greece staying in the euro area above 50%.

Few in Syriza genuinely support the new program, and we would expect Syriza will seek every opportunity to renegotiate. Given doubts about implementation, the creditors are likely to be unusually prescriptive about the specific steps the Greek authorities are expected to take. The negotiations on the design of the program will be difficult. Prime Minister Tsipras has been forced to rely on support from opposition parties to pass the required legislation through the Greek parliament. However, he appears to have limited that loss of support to the hard-left of his own party. Meanwhile, polls suggest his personal approval rating remains high, and that new elections would see a Syriza administration returned if they were called now. Hence, there has been speculation that Prime Minister Tsipras could prompt snap elections, with his government standing down and preventing another one being formed. Though it is not clear whether that will occur, there is clearly potential for Greek political developments to complicate either the negotiations on the program design or its implementation. And if we do move toward new elections, it remains to be seen how Syriza will square its policy platform with the measures being demanded from the rest of the region for Greece to remain in the Euro.

The proposals from the Greek side prior to the July 5 referendum had suggested fiscal tightening amounting to more than 2% of GDP to be implemented immediately, with a further 1% of GDP to follow at the beginning of 2016. The VAT and pensions measures legislated thus far amount to near 0.5% of GDP. It will be important to see the extent to which the third program sees further fiscal tightening implemented in the near term. The extent of such tightening could be moderated by greater prioritization of privatization and structural reform. But the desire from the rest of the region to limit program financing needs, and an emphasis on more easily verifiable measures, is likely to mean hefty fiscal tightening in the near term. Indeed, the summit statement called for introducing "quasi-automatic spending cuts in the event of deviations from ambitious primary surplus targets."

Meanwhile, the capital controls regime will be an administrative challenge for the Greek government, as the need to pay for imports of food, fuel, medical supplies, and inputs for industry all compete with the need to keep capital outflows down. There are already reports of supply chain difficulties from this source, which add further downward pressure on activity. Although the recent summit saw the region avoid a Greek euro exit, the coming quarters are likely to be very difficult for the economy, and the mutual distrust between Greece and its creditors is likely to remain. Completing the negotiations on a third program and beginning to implement it may be enough to push the odds of Greece staying in the euro back above 50%. But until that occurs, and even after, we still see plenty of scope for conflict to re-emerge. 

Why Most Companies "Beat" Earnings Expectations - Explained In One Chart

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When it comes to corporate earnings announcements, some two-thirds of the time companies beat consensus expectations. This happens both during good quarters and bad (such as this one). How is this possible? The following chart form Deutsche Bank explains it once and for all.

The reason the average EPS beat in the past 4 years has been about 3.3% is because the average EPS cut just prior to reporting has been... 4.0%

Central Banks And Our Dysfunctional Gold Markets

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Submitted by Marcia Christoff-Kurapova via The Mises Institute,

Many investors still view gold as a safe-haven investment, but there remains much confusion regarding the extent to which the gold market is vulnerable to manipulation through short-term rigged market trades, and long-arm central bank interventions. First, much of the gold that is being sold as shares, in certificates, or for physical hoarding in dubious "vaults" just isn't there. Second, paper gold can be printed into infinity just like regular currency. Third, new electronic gold pricing — replacing, as of this past February, the traditional five-bank phone-call of the London Gold Fix in place since 1919 — has not necessarily proved a more trustworthy model. Fourth, there looms the specter of the central bank, particularly in the form of volume trading discounts that commodity exchanges offer them.

The Complex World of Gold Investments

The question of rigging has been brought to media attention in the past few months when ten banks came under investigation by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the US Department of Justice in price-manipulation probes. Also around that time, the Swiss regulator FINMA settled a currency manipulation case in which UBS was accused of trading ahead of silver-fix orders. Then, the UK Financial Conduct Authority, which regulates derivatives, ordered Barclays to pay close to $45 million in fines against a trader who artificially suppressed the price of gold in 2012 to avoid payouts to clients. Such manipulations are not limited to the precious-metals market: in November of last year, major banks had to pay several billion dollars in fines related to the rigging of foreign-exchange benchmarks, including LIBOR and other interest-rate benchmarks.

These cases followed on the heels of a set of lawsuits in May 2014 filed in New York City in which twenty-five plaintiffs consisting of hedge funds, private citizens, and public investors (such as pension funds) sued HSBC, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Bank Scotia, and Société Génerale (the five traditional banks of the former London Gold Fix) on charges of rigging the precious-metals and foreign-exchange markets. "A lot of conspiracy theories have turned out to be conspiracy fact," said Kevin Maher, a former gold trader in New York who filed one of the lawsuits that May, told The New York Times.

Central Banks at the Center of Gold Markets

The lawsuits were given more prominence with the introduction of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) on February 20, 2015. The new price-fixing body was established with seven banks: Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, UBS, HSBC, Barclays, Bank Scotia and Société Génerale. (On June 16, the Bank of China announced, after months of speculation, that it would join.)

While some economists have deemed the new electronic fix a good move in contrast to behind-closed-door, phoned-in price-fixing, others beg to differ. Last year, the commodities exchange CME Group came under scrutiny for allowing volume trading discounts to central banks, raising the question of how "open" electronic pricing really is. Then, too, the LBMA is itself not a commodities exchange but an Over-The-Counter (OTC) market, and does not publish — does not have to publish — comprehensive data as to the amount of metal that is traded in the London market.

According to Ms. Ruth Crowell, the chairman of LBMA, writing in a report to that group: "Post-trade reporting is the material barrier preventing greater transparency on the bullion market." In the same report, Crowell states: "It is worth noting that the role of the central banks in the bullion market may preclude 'total' transparency, at least at the public level." To its credit, the secretive London Gold Fix (1919–2015) featured on its website tracking data of the daily net volume of bars traded and the history of gold trades, unlike current available information from the LBMA as one may see here (please scroll down for charts).

The Problem with Paper Gold

There is further the problem of what is being sold as "paper" gold. At first glance, that option seems a good one. Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), registered with The New York Stock Exchange, have done very well over the past decade and many cite this as proof that paper gold, rather than bars in hand, is just as sure an investment. The dollar price of gold rose more than 15.4 percent a year between 1999 and December 2012 and during that time, gold ETFs generated an annual return of 14 percent (while equities registered a loss).

As paper claims on trusts that hold gold in bank vaults, ETFs are for many, preferable to physical gold. Gold coins, for instance, can be easily faked, will lose value when scratched, and dealers take high premiums on their sale. The assaying of gold bars, meanwhile, with transport and delivery costs, is easy for banking institutions to handle, but less so for individuals. Many see them as trustworthy: ETF Securities, for example, one of the largest operators of commodity ETFs with $21 billion in assets, stores their gold in Zurich, rather than in London or Toronto. These last two cities, according to one official from that company, "could not be trusted not to go along with a confiscation order like that by Roosevelt in 1933."

Furthermore, shares in these entities represent only an indirect claim on a pile of gold. "Unless you are a big brokerage firm," writes economist William Baldwin, "you cannot take shares to a teller and get metal in exchange." ETF custodians usually consist of the likes of J.P. Morgan and UBS who are players on the wholesale market, says Baldwin, thus implying a possible conflict of interest.

Government and Gold After 1944: A Love-Hate Relationship

Still more complicated is the love-hate relationship between governments and gold. As independent gold analyst Christopher Powell put it in an address to a symposium on that metal in Sydney, October 2013: "It is because gold is a competitive national currency that, if allowed to function in a free market, will determine the value of other currencies, the level of interest rates and the value of government bonds." He continued: "Hence, central banks fight gold to defend their currencies and their bonds."

It is a relationship that has had a turbulent history since the foundation of the Bretton Woods system in 1944 and up through August 1971, when President Nixon declared the convertibility of the dollar to gold suspended. During those intervening decades, gold lived a kind of strange dual existence as a half state-controlled, half free market-driven money-commodity, a situation that Nobel Prize economist Milton Friedman called a "real versus pseudo gold standard."

The origin of this cumbersome duality was the post-war two-tiered system of gold pricing. On the one hand, there was a new monetary system that fixed gold at $35 an ounce. On the other, there was still a free market for gold. The $35 official price was ridiculously low compared to its free market variant, resulting in a situation in which IMF rules against dealing in gold at "free" prices were circumvented by banks that surreptitiously purchased gold from the London market.

The artificial gold price held steady until the end of the sixties, when the metal's price started to "deny compliance" with the dollar. Still, monetary doctrine sought to keep the price fixed and, at the same time, to influence pricing on the free market. These attempts were failures. Finally, in March 1968, the US lost more than half its reserves, falling from 25,000 to 8,100 tons. The price of other precious metals was allowed to move freely.

Gold Retreats Into the Shadows

Meawhile, private hoarding of gold was underway. According to The Financial Times of May 21, 1966, gold production was rising, but it was not going to official gold stocks. This situation, in turn, fundamentally affected the gold clauses of the IMF concerning repayments in currency only in equal value to the gold value of such at the time of borrowing. This led to a rise in "paper gold planning" as a substitution for further increases in IMF quotas. (Please see "The Paper Gold Planners — Alchemists or Conjurers?" in The Financial Analysts Journal, Nov–Dec 1966.)

By the late 1960s, Vietnam, poverty, the rise in crime and inflation were piling high atop one another. The Fed got to work doing what it does best: "Since April [1969]," wrote lawyer and economist C. Austin Barker in a January 1969 article, "The US Money Crisis,""the Fed has continually created new money at an unusually rapid rate." Economists implored the IMF to allow for a free market for gold but also to set the official price to at least $70 an ounce. What was the upshot of this silly system? That by 1969 Americans were paying for both higher taxes and inflation. The rest, as they might say, is the history of the present.

Today, there is no “official” price for gold, nor any “gold-exchange standard” competing with a semi-underground free gold market. There is, however, a material legacy of “real versus pseudo” gold that remains a terrible menace. Buyer beware of the pivotal difference between the two.

 

Nothing To See Here: German Regulator Decides Deutsche Bank CEO Didn't Know About LIBOR After All

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A little over a week ago in "Deutsche Bank Stunner: An Inside Look At Former CEO’s Role In Liborgate," we presented lengthy passages from a report sent to the bank by BaFin, Germany's financial "watchdog". 

The document contains voluminous evidence which suggests that not only did Anshu Jain (who stepped down last month), know full well that his traders and submitters were likely involved in manipulating LIBOR fixes, but it was in fact Jain who "reorganized the seating order in the trading division in London in the year 2005, which resulted in traders and submitters sitting together, [in order] to achieve an open communication between both functions, especially also with regard to the LIBOR."

The report goes on to describe the relationship between Jain and Christian Bittar, the bank’s rate rigger par excellence, who the former CEO described as one of "the best people we’ve got."

As bad as all of this is, the particularly egregious - according to BaFin anyway - part of the review revolves around statements Jain made to The Bundesbank. In short, BaFin suggested that Jain may have lied about when he first discovered that LIBOR was being manipulated. In fact, according to what Jain told the central bank, Zero Hedge knew about LIBOR rigging two years before he did even though he himself made the seating chart which placed traders next to submitters! 

From BaFin:

There is suspicion that Mr. Jain might have knowingly made incorrect statements in his IBOR related Interview with the Deutsche Bundesbank on 5 October 2012. Mr Jain stated in this interview that he started having doubts about the fixing of the LIBOR for the first time in the first quarter of 2011 and that, in 2008, he had no knowledge about the LIBDR discussions.

Yes, "there is suspicion." That suspicion stems from this:

Mr. Jain had been informed already in 2008 about the discussions in the market relating to the susceptibility of the LIBOR to manipulation.

 

Mr. Falssola reported to Mr. Jain for the first time, according to the information available to EY about LIBOR submissions which deviated from the market by e-mall dated 21 August 2007.

 

In an e-mail dated 7 March 2008, Mr. Nicholls informed Mr. Jain, Mr. Cloete and Mr. Falssola that the Interbank markets were moving in a divergent direction and that there were banks which were trying to obtain liquidity for up to 50 basis points above the reference interest rate they had determined. The necessary conclusion based on this Information was that banks had reported reference rates which were too low.

 

An article appeared In the Wall Street Journal ("Bankers cast doubt on key rate amid crisis”) on 16 April 2008. In which there was a report about the concerns of market participants with regard to the reliability of the this involved and in one paragraph also the possibility of transmitting false Interest rates in order to profit from derivative transactions as well as the possibility of collusion among banks.

 

This was followed by e-maii communications concerning this WSJ article between Mr. Boaz Weinstein and Mr. Alan Cloete; Mr. Cloete stated that the LIBOR no longer represented a realistic ratio.

 

The discussion about the calculation of the LIBOR that made the rounds in the market following the WSJ article was the subject of two e-mails from Mr. Cloete to Mr. Jain on 20 April 2008 and 15 May 2008: Mr. Cloete referred in his e-malls to the rumors about the LIBOR noise about how libor noise around the LIBOR

This shows that Mr. Jain was informed about the LIBOR discussion in the market in the first half of the year 2008.

 

Mr. Jain has been proven to have learned about discussion in the market concerning the susceptibility of the LIBOR to manipulation in 2008.

So basically, Anshu Jain was personally responsible for a seating arrangement reorganization in 2005 which moved traders and submitters next to each other, was told that LIBOR submissions deviated from the market in a documented e-mail from 2007, and discussed a Wall Street Journal article about LIBOR with colleagues over e-mail in 2008. 

This led BaFin to conclude that "Mr. Jain has been proven to have learned” about LIBOR manipulation in 2008 despite the fact that Jain told the Bundesbank he had "no knowledge" of such things until at least 2011. 

Now BaFin says they were just kidding.

We present the following from Bloomberg with no further comment because frankly, given the above, there’s nothing left to say here:

German banking regulator Bafin cleared former Deutsche Bank AG co-Chief Executive Officer Anshu Jain of misleading the Bundesbank about his knowledge of the company’s role in attempts to manipulate benchmark interest rates.

 

"The suspicion that you made knowingly incorrect statements to a regulator seems unsubstantiated to me," Felix Hufeld, the president of Bonn-based Bafin, wrote in a letter to Jain seen by Bloomberg. "This aspect will therefore no longer be relevant in the continued assessment by Bafin."


Knife-Catching Hedge Fund Oil Bulls Dump Crude At Fastest Pace In 3 Years

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Hedge Funds' net long position in WTI Crude collapsed 27% (the biggest single 'dump' in over 3 years) ahead of the big plunge last week (and is now down almost 60% in the last month - the most since 2010). Part of a broader deflationary collapse in commodities, as Bloomberg reports, long positions dropped to a two-year low while short holdings climbed 25%, erasing more than $100 billion in market value from the 61 companies in the Bloomberg E&P stock index. With crude supplies still almost 100 million barrels above the five-year average, "there's a lot more room for prices to slide," warned one trader, "it's going to take a long time for this to work itself out."

 

Speculators’ conviction that oil will rally weakened at the fastest pace in three years, just before futures tumbled into a bear market.

As Bloomberg details, the net-long position in West Texas Intermediate contracted 28 percent in the seven days ended July 21, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Long positions dropped to a two-year low while short holdings climbed 25 percent.

 

Hedge Funds dumped their spec longs en masse...

 

“Supply is still in excess of what would balance the market,” Katherine Spector, a commodities strategist at CIBC World Markets Inc. in New York, said by phone July 24. “We see the global balance improving in the second half of this year and in 2016 but it hasn’t happened yet.”

 

“The Saudis are pursuing their interests,” Sarah Emerson, managing principal of ESAI Energy Inc., a consulting company in Wakefield, Massachusetts, said by phone July 24. “The Saudis see the U.S., Iraq and Iran raising production and aren’t going to lose market share.”

As we noted previously, there’s a chance that the downturn in the world’s oil industry may be more severe than in 1986, when business endured the deepest slump in 45 years, according to Morgan Stanley.

The global oil market is seen coming into balance in the second half of 2017 at the earliest if OPEC continues pumping crude at present levels and U.S. output remains flat, Deutsche Bank strategist Michael Hsueh said in a report last week. Hsueh said that equilibrium is more likely in 2018.

“There’s a lot more room for prices to slide,” Emerson said. “It’s going to take a long time for this to work itself out.”

Compromised Hedge Funder Joins BOE In Revolving Door Roundtrip

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Meet Dr. Gertjan Vlieghe, partner and senior economist at hedge fund Brevan Howard Asset Management.  

Vlieghe, a dual British-Belgian national, has a PhD from the London School of Economics where his dissertation centered around monetary policy, asset prices, and credit markets. For reference, here’s a very dry, and very tedious summary of his academic work, courtesy of Barlcays (feel free to skip):

  • In his publicly available academic papers, Mr Vlieghe highlighted the importance of credit channel frictions for the transmission of monetary policy. In his PhD thesis, he investigated the links between house prices, consumption and monetary policy. Among other things, he showed that mortgage market deregulation tends to amplify the response of consumption relative to housing investment following an unanticipated monetary policy shock.
  • In another paper, Mr Vlieghe uses a model with credit constraints to show the implications of a negative productivity shock. In particular, he shows that the initial optimal response of GDP (a big drop) should be considered in relation to the subsequent sub-optimal allocation of capital (away from the most productive agents) translating into sticky, low productivity growth and lower output. The consequence for monetary policy is that the central bank should tolerate an initial and temporary increase in inflation (within certain limits) in order to mitigate future misallocation of capital.

After school, Vlieghe found work at the BOE where he spent seven years, eventually becoming economic assistant and speechwriter to then governor Mervyn King.

After that, Vlieghe moved to Deutsche Bank where he worked as a bond strategist before landing at Brevan Howard. 

Ok, so another former policymaker lands (multiple) lucrative positions in the private sector. What else is new, and more importantly, why should you care?

Because for Vlieghe, the revolving door has now roundtripped - the economist is headed back to the BOE, this time as a member of the monetary policy committee.

Here’s The Guardian with more:

Chancellor George Osborne has announced that Gertjan Vlieghe, a senior economist at hedge fund Brevan Howard, will replace David Miles on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee.

 

His appointment to the Bank’s nine-member MPC, starting in September, comes as the debate around interest rates heats up. After more than six years of rockbottom rates at 0.5% ushered in by the financial crisis, some policymakers say the time to raise borrowing costs is nearing. Governor Mark Carney has told borrowers to start preparing for a rise and hinted it could happen around the turn of the year.

 

Miles has not once voted for a move in either direction in interest rates in more than 70 policy meetings at the Bank, although he has one more vote to go next week. He used his final speech as an MPC member toindicate a rate rise was getting closer and he also rejected the "dove" label ascribed to him given his apparent support for monetary stimulus during his six years there.

 

Vlieghe, who has a PhD from the London School of Economics, takes over from Miles as an "external member"of the committee, one of four rate-setters appointed by the chancellor to bring in expertise from outside the Bank. He is appointed for an initial three-year term.

And although MNI warns that "pigeon holing him as a hawk or dove would risk committing the fallacy of trying to tag avian labels on to sophisticated, evolving views of policy risks," Barclays isn’t about to 'chicken' out when it comes to guessing where Vlieghe will 'roost' when it comes to policy decisions:

In line with his previous works, Mr Vlieghe may recommend keeping monetary policy accommodative (as long as inflation expectations remain anchored) and focus on fixing the credit distribution channel in order to allow for efficient reallocation of capital. While these recommendations might be the only ones possible within the BoE’s mandate, we believe analysis of the long-term impact of low absolute levels of investment in the private and public sectors are necessary in order to help solve the productivity puzzle. Regarding the pace of rate increase, Mr Vlieghe will most likely agree with keeping the pace as (slow and) gradual as possible, in order to minimise negative wealth effects on households, as he appears to believe that the negative response on consumption may be amplified in a highly deregulated mortgage market such as in the UK and boost the recovery in investment and therefore potential output.

 

Overall, we believe the replacement of David Miles by Mr Vlieghe will maintain the balance of views within the MPC, although possibly make them slightly more dovish in the near term. Barring the fact that Mr Miles has been relatively hawkish in recent weeks, in the past he has called for more quantitative easing, in a way that appears compatible with some of Mr Vlieghe’s views. Accordingly, we expect Mr Vlieghe to join the ranks of Mark Carney, Ben Broadbent and Sir Jon Cunliffe, in expressing a cautious stance, if not supporting Andy Haldane’s view of a rate cut being as likely as a hike. Also, having worked at the central bank as well as on the market side, Mr Vlieghe's communications should be well measured and won't cause friction, we believe.

So here we have a former BOE employee and speechwriter for a BOE governor who went on to use what he learned at the central bank to help Deutsche Bank, and then Brevan Howard make money, and now, he's going to return to the BOE, this time as a voting member. 

Besides marking a hilarious new chapter in the public/private revolving door saga that pervades financial markets, this particular appointment comes with a particularly amusing punchline. Vlieghe will "retain his rights to a share of future earnings" in Brevan Howard, which is the very same hedge fund that hosted the event at which the ECB's Benoit Coeure famously told a non-public audience of hedge funds that "the central bank would moderately front-load" its QE purchases, earlier this year.

The takeaway: expect more "Chatham House rule" meetings in the very near future.

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Full statement from HM Treasury

The Chancellor today (Tuesday 28 July) announced that Dr Gertjan Vlieghe has been appointed as external member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Dr Vlieghe will be appointed for an initial three year term which will take effect from 1st September 2015. As an external member of the MPC, Dr Vlieghe will hold one of nine votes to decide the future path of UK monetary policy. The MPC meets monthly to set monetary policy it judges will enable the inflation target to be met.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, said:

  • "Monetary policy plays a critical role in our long term economic plan, delivering economic security to working people."
  • "Dr Vlieghe is an economist of outstanding ability who brings experience from his time at both the Bank of England and the financial services industry to the role and will be a strong addition to the MPC."

Dr Vlieghe replaces Professor David Miles who comes to the end of his extended second term at the end of August. Professor Miles was first appointed to the MPC on 1 June 2009 and has made a significant contribution to monetary policy making and analysis during his six years on the committee.

In announcing the recruitment process for Professor Miles’ successor in May, the Chancellor said:

  • "I also want to put on record my thanks to David Miles for his service to the MPC, which has benefited enormously from both his expertise and insightful contributions during his time in office."

About Dr Gertjan Vlieghe

Dr Gertjan Vlieghe is Partner and Senior Economist at Brevan Howard Asset Management having previously been a Director at Deutsche Bank.

Prior to his move to the financial services industry, he worked at the Bank of England for seven years where he became economic assistant to the Governor, Lord Mervyn King.

Dr Vlieghe received his PhD from the London School of Economics where his dissertation focused on monetary policy, asset prices and credit market imperfections.

Potential outcomes from the upcoming FOMC rate decision...

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FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting Preview


  • No great surprises are expected with September seen as a more livelier affair on the path to potential rate lift-off


  • Comments hinting at added anxiety about the situation developing in China would likely be seen as a dovish turn of events


  • Given the Fed’s savviness and unwillingness to pre-commit, the announcement may well pass without leaving us with many more clues as to the timing
    of eventual rate lift-off
  • Video preview:
    FOMC Preview

OVERVIEW 

The FOMC are to hold their July policy meeting on Wednesday at 1900BST/1300CDT with the overwhelming consensus being that the Fed will once again keep
rates at their record low with attention more so on subtle tweaks to the statement given the broader consensus of a September move and
given that this month there will be no projections or press conference.

Participants will be on the lookout for further signals as to identify whether raising rates before the year end remains a viable option.
Many investors still see the next scheduled meeting in September as the most likely time for rate lift-off to commence, given the presence of a post
meeting press conference from the Fed Chair whereby she would have the opportunity to explain in more detail their reasoning and attempt to balance markets
interpretation if they were to make a move on rates at that time. Given that fact this meeting will be the Fed’s final formal opportunity to signal to the
markets their intentions, however as is typically the case the Fed will be at pains to not pre-commit to any policy path and will likely keep their options open reiterating
that a rate hike could happen at “any meeting” and that the board remain data dependent.

At the last FOMC monetary policy meeting the board stated that risks to the economy and the labour market were relatively balanced. However, the Fed
highlighted particular risks came from failure to strike a deal between Greece and their creditors as well as the emerging markets/China slowdown. With risks from Greece easing, in the short term at least, focus will be on commentary on the continued turbulence seen in China. Other
areas of interest may be in regards to the USD which we have seen impact several large cap companies revenue forecasts this earnings season, in addition to
the unknown ramifications that plummeting oil prices may have on domestic inflation.

 

One interesting point raised by analysts at Deutsche Bank is not so much the raising of rates but the Fed’s ‘re-investment policy’. They note that the
rolling over of maturing debt next year would essentially amount to “quantitative tightening”. The potential for this to come up in the statement is highly
unlikely this month but it is a policy tool that may become in vogue moving forwards given the Fed’s persistence that the first increase should not be the
focus and that any moves higher would be ‘gradual’.

 

MARKET REACTION

The market reaction to this month’s announcement may be muted given that the September meeting is seen as a more livelier affair on the path to potential
rate lift-off. Comments hinting at added anxiety about the situation developing in China would likely be seen as a dovish turn of events
and would likely result in USD weakness and a flattening of the US curve as participants push back their expectation of eventual rate lift-off. At present,
the CME Group FedWatch shows that FFR are currently pricing in a 54% probability of a 25bps rate hike occurring in December 2015.

A more hawkish delivery would likely include more hints as to the FOMC’s timing in pulling the trigger in September which may come in them highlighting
satisfaction at how the economy and jobs situation is improving, in addition to the fact that the imminent danger from Greece has now been averted. Despite
this market pricing and

recent external developments would suggest a more dovish delivery could be on the cards, however, given the Fed’s savviness the announcement may well
pass without leaving us with any more concrete idea as to the timing of rate lift-off.

The Fate Of China's Monetary Policy Is In The Hoofs Of Pigs

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It seems China's efforts to stabilize their economy stock market knows no bounds - nowhere better exemplified than the 5% spike in an hour last night after injecting $100bn into the sovereign (rescue) fund - and western observers applaud the efforts as if they are costlessly saving the world. However, there are costs to all this leveraged asset bubble creation (and maintenance) and, as China People's Daily reports, nowhere is that more evident than the surging price of pork (on if China's main CPI components). As Deutsche Bank warns, in the past 15 years, the PBoC has never cut interest rates when inflation was picking up (whether driven by food or more broad-based); so the fate of an 'easy money' inspired stock market bubble remains in the hands hoofs of pigs as the policy stance will be forced to turn from loosening to neutral in Q4 as inflation rises.

 

Just keep pumping money in right?

 

Well there are consequences... (via China People's Daily)

The price of pork in China has been rising for a couple of months now, with a new uplift record in 3 years. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), starting in March, the price of pork has been rising for 4 months with a total of a 5.7 yuan rise. In China, the price on pork is closely related to the CPI (Consumer Price Index). Experts interpret that the price of pork will keep on rising and drive the rise of CPI at the same time. Consequently, the CPI of the latter half of the year is expected to be a little higher than the first half of the year, but there is no strong sign of inflation.

 

 

 

Statistics of NBS show that from March 18 to July 20, the price of pork has risen almost 50 percent. The current price on pork ranks the highest since the year of 2012. Based on previous experience, the price on pork usually would have an "outburst" every 2 to 3 years. The last "pork cycle" happened during June 2010 to June 2011. It seems like a new round of the “pork cycle” is around the corner. Because of being under the oversupply for a long period of time, many small and medium-sized farmers' quit their jobs- a major driver of appreciation.

 

In China, the price of pork is one of the main components of the CPI. In 2010, the rise in the price of pork and vegetables was taken as the dominant factor that caused the rise of CPI in the fourth quarter.

And, as Deutsche's Jim Reid notes,there are actions after those consequences...

Yesterday our economics team in China highlighted the recent surge in pork prices for the country in recent weeks. They noted that having stayed negative for 14 consecutive months since the beginning of 2014 (averaging -4.2% in the time), the yoy growth of pork prices turned positive in March (+2%) and averaged nearly 7% in Q2 (8.3% in April, 5.3% in May and 7.0% in June). Pork prices have typically been the driving force for CPI in past cycles and they expect prices to remain on the rise for the next 6 to 12 months, reinforcing their view that CPI will be on an upward trend in H2.

 

Our colleagues also point that in the past 15 years, the PBoC has never cut interest rates when inflation was picking up (whether driven by food or more broad-based) and so believe that this could constrain the room for further easing beyond one cut (and one further RRR cut) in Q3 this year.

 

They then expect the policy stance to turn from loosening to neutral in Q4 as inflation rises and growth picks up slightly.

 

Furthermore, considering all factors, we believe recent development raises the probability for the government to cut growth target for 2016 to 6.5% from 7%.

*  *  *

So, simply put, the fate of China's economy, stock market, and monetary policy is in the hands of pigs (the porcine type, not the humane type)... just as it forced PBoC's hand in 2011... so be careful what you wish for.

This Is The Biggest Paradox Facing The Fed Ahead Of Its Rate Hike Decision

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Ahead of today's FOMC announcement, which comes without a press conference and has thus been dismissed as a possible start to a Fed hiking cycle, the Fed has a big problem. It's not jobs, which are running at a pace that many suggest is strong enough to sustain at least a 25 bps hike to nearly a decade of ZIRP, assuming of course one completely ignores the "quality" component as virtually all recent job growth has been in the low-paying job category especially waiters and bartenders...

 

... but inflation, and specifically the bifurcation between core inflation and headline inflation.

Here is the paradox as succinctly summarized by Deutsche Bank, which notes that the current -29% year-over-year drop in the CRB index implies YoY headline CPI inflation falling from 0.1% to -0.9% over the next couple of months, or just in time for the September or December FOMC meetings both proposed as the "lift off" date. This would be the largest year-over-year drop since September 2009 (-1.3%) and one of the lowest prints in modern history.

However core YoY CPI inflation is likely to edge above 2% in the months ahead which complicates matters.

In other words, Fed will have to pound the table on the commodity crunch being a transitory event, just like every other "transitory event" that forced the Fed to postpone hiking rates since 2011. The problem, however, is that unlike "snow in the winter", plunging oil and commodity prices are proving to be anything but "transitory", and are mostly a function of China's economy whose ongoing decline is also anything but a one-time event. In fact, if anything, China's contraction is accelerating, with the recent bursting of its stock market bubble only likely to add to its headaches and to commodity price downside as Chinese Commodity Financing Deals are unwound.

Which brings us to the WSJ's Fed mouthpiece, Jon Hilsenrath, who largely summarized the above in his preview of what the Fed will today as follows:

The Federal Reserve has framed its decision about raising interest rates around the progress it sees in achieving its dual mandate goals of maximum employment and 2% inflation. Officials could emerge from their policy meeting today with a split decision – progress on the employment side of their mandate and continued uncertainty on the inflation side.

 

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in testimony to Congress earlier this month that the economy is “demonstrably closer” to reaching the Fed’s full employment goal. Since the Fed last met in June, the jobless rate has notched down further from 5.5% to 5.3%, its lowest level since April 2008, hiring appears to have returned to a path of steady gains in excess of 200,000 per month after stumbling in March and wages show tentative signs of moving higher. Fed officials will need to acknowledge these advances in their post-meeting policy statement, a sign that a rate increase is approaching.

 

Still it is hard to see how officials derive great confidence that inflation is surely returning to their 2% goal. Oil prices and commodities more broadly have resumed their march down and the dollar its movement higher, factors that have weighed on inflation all year. The Fed has described these developments as transitory before, but slow growth in China could give them some pause about that conclusion. Broad measures of inflation show little sign of breaking out of the sub-2% trend which has been in place for more than three years. Meantime, inflation compensation in bond markets has notched lower after stabilizing earlier this year. And though wages show signs of picking up, a breakout isn’t yet obvious and the links between wages and broader inflation are tentative.

Hilsenrath's conclusion: "It potentially sets up the Fed and markets for a cliffhanger policy meeting in September. The jobs part of their mandate – so important to Ms. Yellen – is signaling a rate increase is due. But the inflation part of the mandate signals continued patience. Officials won’t want to lock themselves in until they see more data on the economy’s performance."

Which is probably another way of saying what Lloyd Blankfein just stated in a Bloomberg TV interview, namely that the "first rate hike will be jarring."

And while the above covers the Fed's thinking on input drivers, but what about the market's "reaction function" manifesting in the strength of the USD? Here are some thoughts from UBS on the topic:

The dollar's strong foreign exchange value remains a challenge for forecasters and investors. Over the year ended in June, the Federal Reserve's broad trade-weighted dollar index rose 12.5%. (The major currencies component was up 17.3% and the other important trading partners component rose 9.0%.) How much difference does a strong dollar make for Federal Reserve monetary policy and the US economy? Our answer is that a strong dollar means growth and inflation are lower than  they would be otherwise but probably not by enough to preclude the Fed funds rate tightening that we still see beginning before year-end.

 

One way to assess what a strong dollar means for Fed policy and the economy is to consider some recent analyses provided by Fed economists for Fed policymakers. One such analysis comes from Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists Mary Amiti and Tyler Bodine-Smith in a July 17 Liberty Street Economics article titled "The Effect of the Strong Dollar on US Growth". They concluded that sustained 10% dollar appreciation after a year reduces US real net exports enough to subtract 50 basis points from US real GDP growth, with another 20 basis points coming after the second year. (See Figure 1.) These effects are more related to lower exports, which are more sensitive to dollar movements than imports.

 

If the strong dollar makes near-term real GDP growth 50 basis points lower than it would be otherwise, would that be enough to preclude a Fed funds rate hike before year-end? That might be the case if the Fed only considered actual versus its expected real GDP growth. For instance, in the FOMC's mid-year projections of Q4/Q4 real GDP growth, the members' central tendency forecast was 1.8% to 2.0% for 2015 and 2.4% to 2.7% for 2016. Heading into 2015, Q4/Q4 real GDP growth at the end of 2014 was 2.4%. A 50-basis-point reduction in growth due to a strong dollar would still leave growth at the 1.9% mid-point of the 2015 central tendency forecast if growth momentum outside of the trade sector is maintained in 2015. Clearly, given the uncertainties about how much a strong dollar reduces growth, it is a close call whether the strong dollar over the past year will enable the Fed to achieve its growth targets.

 

However, the Fed is more likely to be influenced by the unemployment rate and core inflation than real GDP growth. Frequent and uncertain revisions to real GDP growth are a practical reason for the Fed not to hitch its Fed funds rate and balance sheet policies to published real GDP growth. While the unemployment rate and core inflation inevitably are imperfect measures, at least they are not subject to the types of sometimes large revisions associated with real GDP growth data.

So maybe the resumed strength in the dollar won't be enough to push the Fed away from the hike button, but it surely will be enough to crush corporate sales and EPS, as has been the case for the past two quarters and will be for the coming quarters. Recall that the biggest complaint by far during Q2 the earnings season by CFOs has been the strength in tthe USD. How long until the CEOs of US multinationals decide to all dial the Fed and make it clear that the ongoing surge in the DXY will simply not do?

What does the Fed likely do? Nothing today, almost certainly nothing in September, and a small rate hike in December just to show it can is possible. The question then is will this send the dollar surging even more, and lead to an even more acute crash in corporate profitability, one which not even buybacks and non-GAAP addbacks can mask the underlying corporate recession, and more importantly, just how much more credibility can the Fed afford to lose as a result of the recent dramatic flattening in the yield curve, before we finally get the clearest recession signal of all, a curve inversion, at which point the next step after the rate hike becomes inevitable: even more QE?

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